An anonymous options trader spent $3.17 million on a bitcoin strategy that pays out best if the coin reaches $95,000 by the end of October, one of the largest single bets on continued upside this month.
The trade was a long call butterfly, an options structure that involves buying one call at a lower strike, selling two calls at a middle strike and buying one call at a higher strike, all with the same expiry. According to CoinDesk’s market daybook, the position makes the most money if bitcoin settles near $95,000 at expiry and returns a positive gross payoff anywhere between $90,000 and $100,000. Outside that range the payoff is zero and the trader loses the full premium.
What the trade implies
The position implies bitcoin rising from roughly $85,000 to $95,000 in four weeks, a move of about 12 percent. That view aligns with the daily chart, which shows little obvious resistance between $85,000 and $98,000. There are no price levels in that zone where bitcoin previously stalled or consolidated, so momentum alone could carry the price toward $98,000 if buying continues.
Bitcoin has already reclaimed every one of its long-term moving averages. “After around 300 days underneath them, this dynamic has now flipped. Holding above them is what maintains a long-term uptrend,” Glassnode said in a note cited by CoinDesk. The on-chain firm added that sustained closes above the 50-, 100- and 200-day averages have historically marked the difference between bear-market rallies and durable uptrends.
Monday’s session added fuel. US spot bitcoin ETFs took in about $999 million, the ninth-largest single-day inflow on record, as the price rallied to its highest level since January. Ether and solana funds also took in money. Dogecoin led the broader rebound with a 15 percent jump, and short sellers lost $844 million across the market in forced liquidations. Zecash was the only major token in the red after weeks of outsized gains that had made it the year’s standout performer.
Volatility signals are shifting
Derivatives desks reported choppy flows around the rally. “Risk reversals have also been volatile, with front-end RRs flipping aggressively in favour of calls during the move up to $85K, before retracing somewhat this morning,” Laser Digital said in a note shared with CoinDesk. Risk reversals measure the relative price of calls against puts, and a tilt toward calls signals demand for upside exposure.
Realized volatility has been falling even as prices climb. BlackRock researchers argued this month that spot ETFs and their options markets have compressed bitcoin volatility from about 80 to between 35 and 40, as institutions increasingly treat ETF shares as collateral and trade them like any other asset. Lower volatility makes structured bets like butterflies cheaper to put on, since the middle strike costs less to finance with the wings.
On Monday, Coinbase Markets reported that options were pricing one-standard-deviation swings of 8.9 percent for XRP, 8.0 percent for SOL, 6.9 percent for ether and 5.0 percent for bitcoin through September 27. Bitcoin, the largest and most liquid market, carries the smallest expected swing, a sign that options traders see the calm persisting at least through the end of the month.
Not everyone is buying calls
The butterfly is a measured bet, not a leveraged moonshot. It profits most in a narrow band and loses its entire premium if bitcoin falls back below $90,000 or blows through $100,000. That asymmetry suits traders who expect a continuation but not a blow-off top, and it caps the maximum loss at the premium paid rather than exposing the trader to margin calls on short positions.
There are counterweights on the other side. A separate CoinDesk analysis found that bitcoin and ether perpetual futures volumes on the prediction market Kalshi are dominated by an unusual, repetitive trade pattern, with one $5,499 order size accounting for 57 percent of sampled ether-perpetual volume, while recurring $2,500 and $5,000 trade sizes made up 54 percent of sampled bitcoin-perpetual volume. The pattern raises questions about who is trading and why, and it muddies the signal that volume data normally provides about conviction behind a move.
Macro remains the swing factor. Oil has fallen toward $100 a barrel as US-Iran diplomacy at the UN General Assembly reduces supply fears, and softer crude has supported risk appetite across markets. Bitcoin recovered from Asian-session lows on Tuesday as WTI dropped below $90 for the first time in months, and equity markets held near records after the Nasdaq closed at 27,122 on Monday. Falling yields added to the mood, with traders betting that cooling crude prices will feed through to softer inflation prints.
Risks cut both ways. A reversal in the geopolitical picture, a hawkish surprise from central banks, or a fresh bout of ETF outflows would hit the $95,000 target before the options expire. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets September 29 with markets pricing a possible hike to 4.60 percent after its governor warned that upside inflation risks are materialising, and any sign that inflation is reaccelerating globally would pressure leveraged trades across asset classes.
The bet expires with October, roughly four weeks from now. Whether it pays depends less on news flow than on whether the ETF-driven bid that lifted bitcoin above $87,000 overnight holds through the month, and whether the options market’s calm pricing survives the first serious pullback. Butterflies of this size rarely move the underlying market, but they do reveal where sophisticated money sees the risk-reward, and right now that sits above $90,000.