The Pentagon is developing a new nuclear strategy that would give the U.S. president a wider range of nuclear options in a potential conflict with Russia or China, according to five people familiar with the plans who spoke to NBC News.
The proposed approach places greater emphasis on shorter-range tactical nuclear weapons for regional conflicts, rather than relying primarily on long-range strategic nuclear weapons. The classified review is intended to address scenarios in which U.S. allies come under attack from Russia or China in a regional conflict, and is being overseen by Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby.
U.S. defense officials told NBC the aim is to provide the president with more realistic and credible nuclear options, arguing that a broader range of choices would strengthen deterrence. The effort is part of a broader Nuclear Posture Review update that the Pentagon periodically conducts to align strategy with current threats.
The review comes roughly six months after the expiration of the New START treaty, the last remaining bilateral agreement limiting U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear arsenals. The treaty lapsed in February without a replacement, leaving the world without formal nuclear arms control between the two largest nuclear powers for the first time in decades.
China’s rapid nuclear expansion is a key driver of the strategy shift. The latest Pentagon estimates project Beijing will field at least 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030, up from roughly 500 to 600 today. This growth, coupled with Russia’s modernized strategic forces, creates a scenario where the U.S. might face simultaneous nuclear crises in Europe and the Indo-Pacific.
The strategy may include closer integration with allied forces in Asia and Europe, reflecting concerns that U.S. allies in both regions could face nuclear-armed adversaries. Russia updated its nuclear doctrine in 2024, stating that aggression by a non-nuclear state backed by a nuclear power would be treated as a joint attack, further raising the stakes for allied security guarantees.
The development has drawn criticism from arms control advocates who warn that expanding the range of usable nuclear weapons could lower the threshold for nuclear use. China has rejected joining arms control talks, saying the countries with the largest nuclear arsenals should bear the primary responsibility for nuclear disarmament.
The upcoming 2026 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty review conference will be a critical forum for addressing arms control prospects as the strategic landscape shifts dramatically. The Pentagon strategy is expected to be finalized later this year.
Sources: NBC News, RT, The Telegraph
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