Bitcoin surged past $64,000 on Monday, gaining roughly 2% even as the S&P 500 slid 0.52%, posting one of the sharpest divergences between the two assets this year.The rare split came just two days before the Federal Reserve releases minutes from its July 28-29 policy meeting, a document markets expect will reveal the depth of disagreement among officials over interest rates.
Fed Split Vote Raises Stakes for Wednesday Release
The July FOMC meeting kept rates unchanged in the 3.50% to 3.75% range, but the vote split 9-3, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. That unusual division has markets parsing the minutes for any signal about whether the September meeting could tilt toward tightening. CME FedWatch data currently prices in roughly 35% odds of a September rate hike.
Oil and Bond Yields Compound Pressure
Rising oil prices on renewed U.S.-Iran tensions added inflationary concerns to the mix. Brent crude climbed toward $90 a barrel as a 60-day ceasefire expired and Tehran threatened a fully offensive military posture. Simultaneously, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield touched levels not seen since 2007, with the global sovereign bond selloff rattling equity markets from New York to Seoul.
Bitcoin Acts as Relative Haven
In this environment, Bitcoin functioned less like a leveraged risk asset and more like a relative haven. Traders pointed to capital rotation out of equities and into alternative stores of value. The token climbed from a weekend close near $62,800 to above $64,000, reclaiming its 200-period exponential moving average around the $64,000 level.
BTC is going up. S&P 500 is going down. I like this, wrote one widely shared post on X that captured the mood among crypto traders.
Bitcoin’s correlation with equities has been inconsistent throughout 2026. Earlier this year, a sharp deleveraging wave drove BTC below $70,000 as the crypto market shed an estimated $467 billion in value, tracking a broader risk-off move. But the latest divergence suggests some traders see Bitcoin as decoupling from traditional markets amid macro uncertainty.
What Comes Next
The Fed minutes on Wednesday carry weight for both markets. A hawkish tone emphasizing persistent inflation and the risk of September tightening would likely pressure both equities and crypto. A more balanced tone focused on slowing labor market growth or softening consumer spending could support a rebound. July retail sales fell 0.6%, and upcoming earnings from Home Depot and Walmart will provide further clarity on consumer health.
Sources: BeInCrypto; Mitrade; CoinDesk; CME Group FedWatch tool; CNBC
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