Bitcoin pushed toward $80,000 on Monday after U.S. spot ETFs posted their strongest weekly inflows in 10 months, with the asset climbing nearly 24% from below $64,000 in what analysts called its best weekly performance in years.
The cryptocurrency hit $79,954 in early New York trading before pulling back slightly, settling above $77,700. The move came after U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $1 billion in net inflows for the week, the largest weekly figure since October 2025, according to CoinArticle and Bloomberg.
Short Covering Amplifies the Rally
Short positions had built up to elevated levels before the move, and when prices climbed, those bets were forced into closure at a record pace by data going back to 2021, according to Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick. Spot trading volumes jumped sharply, while funding rates on perpetual futures remained positive but below crowded-long levels at around 0.009% per four hours.
Nansen senior research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard told crypto.news that the rally has been fueled by both ETF inflows and forced short covering, a technical dynamic where traders who bet on price declines are forced to buy to close their positions, creating additional upward pressure. However, he cautioned that a sustained move past $80,000 will require consistent spot demand rather than relying solely on short squeeze dynamics.
Macro Backdrop Supports Risk Assets
The rally arrived after months of gradual decline and was triggered in part by events in the bond market. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s plan to at least double long-term buyback operations pushed yields lower and weakened the dollar, creating a more favorable liquidity environment for risk assets. Ray Dalio, not typically a crypto enthusiast, offered praise for Bitcoin while pointing to what he described as an unsustainable U.S. debt spiral.
Technically, the move was swift enough to push Bitcoin through both its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, while the 14-day relative strength index entered overbought territory above 80. Kendrick wrote in a note that his year-end target of $100,000 may now be too conservative, adding that an overshoot toward the previous record of $126,000 before year-end could not be ruled out.
The rally has brought BTC close to its recent high of $78,048 set on August 22, with market capitalization reaching approximately $1.56 trillion. The Fear and Greed Index jumped from 40 to the 62-73 range between August 19 and 23, shifting from fear to greed territory.
Analysts Urge Caution on Sustainability
Some analysts warned that much of the initial move was mechanically driven by forced short closures rather than genuine new demand. Many ETF investors remain underwater from earlier positions. Tanay Ved, lead analyst at Talus, offered a more balanced view: There are some encouraging signs. As prices continued to rise, we saw new buyers entering the market rather than just traders closing shorts.
Bitcoin remains around 43% below its October all-time high near $126,000. Key support sits at $74,000-$76,000, with resistance at $77,500-$80,000. A decisive break above $80,000, accompanied by continued ETF inflows and healthy spot volume, would strengthen the case for a move toward $81,000-$83,000.
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