US spot bitcoin ETFs have climbed back into positive territory for 2026, posting nearly $800 million in net inflows year to date after sitting on a $5.8 billion deficit as recently as mid-July. The reversal, tracked by data provider SoSoValue and analyzed by CoinDesk, lands just over two months after the funds hit their low point for the year on July 13.
The turnaround tracks bitcoin’s own recovery. The asset traded below $58,000 in early June and has since climbed to roughly $85,000, its best quarterly run since the final three months of 2024, according to CoinDesk data. Bitcoin has rallied about 44 percent this quarter after three straight quarters of losses, and it now consolidates near $84,000. Analysts at several firms read the combination of rising prices and steady fund buying as evidence a new bull phase may already be underway.
Six straight days of buying
The funds have taken in money for six consecutive trading sessions, a stretch that added $2.84 billion even as bitcoin’s rally stalled above $85,000 earlier in the week. The streak is the third of its length on record. The previous two were stronger: a February 2024 run pulled in $2.35 billion, and a November 2024 streak brought in $4.73 billion, nearly double the current total. Roughly $4 billion has entered the funds since August, and Monday’s session alone drew close to $1 billion, the ninth-largest single-day inflow since the products launched in January 2024.
The caution flag sits in the annual totals. At $800 million, the year-to-date figure remains small next to the $35.2 billion the funds drew in 2024 and the $21.4 billion in 2025. Through September 23, the funds have recorded 91 days of net inflows and 91 days of net outflows across 182 trading days, a perfectly split year that only recently tipped positive. The recovery has also been uneven across issuers: BlackRock’s IBIT alone accounts for well over half of the assets in the category, holding about 796,000 BTC in custody as of early September.
Profit taking stays muted
On-chain data points in the same direction. Bitcoin holders have realized about $2.4 billion in profits since the price surge began, according to figures tracked by Bitfinex and cited by CoinDesk. At prior market tops, daily realized profits ran between $7 billion and $10 billion, the exchange noted, so the current wave of selling is running at a fraction of historical peak levels.
The realized profit metric records dollar gains locked in when coins move on-chain above the price at which they last changed hands. A coin bought at $40,000 and spent at $84,000 books $44,000 in realized profit. The comparison matters because ETF inflows of $2.84 billion over six days now exceed the profits holders have realized in the same period, meaning new institutional money is absorbing the supply coming to market rather than meeting it with fresh selling.
On-chain analysts have also flagged a rare bullish crossover this week. The short-term holder cost basis, the average price paid by investors who bought within the past six months, has moved back above the adjusted long-term holder cost basis. CryptoQuant analysts count this as the fifth such crossover in bitcoin’s history and treat it as a bull-market confirmation signal, noting that more than 3.5 million BTC has not moved in over a decade and that ETF liquidity has changed the structure of this cycle.
Ether adds its own signals
Ether is showing a similar pattern. Around 410,000 ETH has left exchanges over the past month, according to Bitfinex, while US spot ether ETFs took in $680 million across four sessions. Coins moving off exchanges is generally read as accumulation, since tokens held in cold storage or custody are unavailable for quick selling.
The market has also shrugged off the largest exchange security incident in months. Bitget lost $351.6 million in an overnight hack on September 24, with the exchange attributing the breach to spoofed transfers through a compromised wallet backend rather than stolen private keys. Bitcoin and ether prices showed no measurable reaction, and withdrawals on Bitget remain suspended pending a security review while its $464 million protection fund covers the loss. The episode passed without the contagion fears that followed earlier exchange failures, a sign of how much the market’s structure has changed since the FTX collapse.
What to watch next
Analysts are watching three things from here: whether the six-day inflow streak extends if bitcoin keeps trading in the mid-$80,000 range, whether the annual net figure can close the gap toward prior-year levels, and whether macro conditions keep driving flows. A global bond selloff pushed long-dated US yields to their highest since 2004 this week, yet bitcoin and equities stayed calm, a divergence traders are monitoring for signs of stress.
Derivatives positioning adds a mixed note. Bitcoin futures open interest slipped back below 700,000 BTC, cooling a brief spike in leveraged longs, while whale accounts on Binance remain tilted heavily long, with the long-short whale ratio at 1.33. Options markets are pricing in less turbulence, with 30-day implied volatility for both bitcoin and ether sliding toward levels that have acted as a floor for much of the year. More than $17 billion in bitcoin and ether options expired on Deribit on Friday with little visible market impact, and the most-traded bitcoin strike was the $90,000 call, a bet on further upside.