US spot bitcoin ETFs have flipped from record demand to outflows in the space of a week, with three consecutive sessions of net selling as markets ramp up bets that the Federal Reserve will hike rates next week rather than hold. Bitcoin traded between roughly $76,500 and $78,200 on Thursday, down about 2% on the day and nearly 6% on the week, according to CoinStats market data.
The reversal is sharp. Through late August and early September, the funds pulled in $3.8 billion over three weeks, the strongest such stretch of 2026, driven largely by BlackRock’s IBIT. That streak has now given way to steady redemptions, with the latest sessions all negative as investors cut exposure ahead of the Fed’s September 15-16 meeting.
The timing matters. The earlier inflow run came as bitcoin pushed through $80,000 and toward $81,000, wiping out hundreds of millions of dollars in short positions along the way. That rally now looks like its high-water mark. Bitcoin has retreated to the mid-$70,000s, below the $80,000 to $83,000 resistance area that had capped every attempt since early September. The single-day flow record for the wrong direction was set on September 1, when the funds shed $236 million, the roughest session of August.
Macro repricing, not crypto-specific
The immediate catalyst sits outside crypto. August producer price data released Thursday came in hot, up 0.4% on the month and 5.4% year on year, sending the two-year Treasury yield roughly 15 basis points higher to a more than two-year high. Rates markets now price the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed hike next week at around 70%, up from about 40% a week earlier, according to commentary cited by TheStreet.
The oil market is feeding the inflation story. Brent crude climbed through $104 a barrel this week after touching $105, up from around $95 at the start of the month, keeping energy-driven price pressure at the front of every central bank’s mind. Stocks fell for a fourth straight session on Thursday under the same weight. Crypto is not being singled out; it is being repriced alongside everything else that trades on rate expectations.
Bitcoin fell in step with the broader risk complex. Around 95 of the 100 constituents of the CoinDesk 100 index were lower in the latest session, and total crypto market capitalization slipped to roughly $2.76 trillion, down 0.6% in 24 hours. Ethereum dropped about 1.1%, while XRP and Dogecoin lost more.
August CPI, released Friday morning, is the next checkpoint. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected consumer prices up 0.4% on the month and 3.4% year on year, with core CPI at 0.2% and 2.4%. An in-line or soft print could steady flows; a hot one would likely extend the pullback and could cement a hike at the September 15-16 meeting. Fed Governor Christopher Waller had signaled on September 3 that he would support holding, but left the door open if inflation prints ran hot. Thursday’s PPI did exactly that.
Leverage made the drop worse
Derivatives positioning amplified the move. Funding rates showed a market tilted heavily long, though not at the extreme 0.03% per four-hour levels that signal overheated leverage. Once bitcoin lost the $78,300 to $78,500 support band, futures participants turned active sellers, and liquidation data shows leveraged longs took most of the damage. A September 9 report recorded roughly $12.7 million in liquidations, about $8 million of it from longs.
Spot demand has not confirmed any bullish conviction either. Cumulative volume delta on spot markets was pegged near negative $29.6 million, and perpetual futures CVD near negative $176 million, meaning direct buying has thinned out even as the price held up through most of the inflow streak. Declining long-side funding payments point the same way: leveraged traders have grown less willing to pay a premium for bullish exposure.
Options traders tell a different story
The one pocket of optimism is options. Roughly 62% of open interest sits in calls versus 38% in puts, with significant positioning clustered at $80,000 and $85,000 strikes. About 43% of bitcoin options open interest is set to expire on September 25, just over a week after the Fed decision, leaving a large $80,000 call wall that could pin price action near that level into expiry. The 25-delta skew had also turned favorable toward calls.
The tension between call-heavy options positioning and negative spot flows has a simple read: traders are hedging or betting on a rebound without actually buying bitcoin. A sustained recovery would need renewed ETF inflows and positive spot demand, neither of which has shown up yet.
There is context for patience. Bitcoin still trades above its major daily moving-average cluster, weekly RSI remains above neutral, and the price is consolidating rather than breaking down, having pulled back from an early-September high near $81,000 to $82,700 rather than collapsing through it. Bitcoin’s decline was also milder than the losses in several smaller assets, a reminder of its relative liquidity when the market turns risk-off.
Treasury operations are worth a glance too. The US Treasury lifted the cap on certain long-term bond buyback operations from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation starting September 9, a technical move that adds liquidity to the long end at a moment when yields are straining higher. Any relief there takes pressure off the whole risk complex, crypto included.
History argues against overreacting to a few bad sessions. Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed more than $64 billion in cumulative net inflows since launch, and the funds still hold around $97 billion in net assets, equal to about 6% of bitcoin’s market cap. Institutional demand has survived worse macro stretches than this one.
For now the burden of proof sits with the buyers. Three sessions of outflows, negative spot demand and a hawkish repricing all point one direction. Friday’s CPI print decides whether this stays a correction or turns into something worse.