US spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in roughly $2.39 billion in the trading week ended September 25, their biggest weekly inflow since October 2025, according to Farside Investors data. The surge lifted the funds’ 2026 net flows back into positive territory after a difficult summer, and it happened in the same week the Federal Reserve lifted its target range to 3.75 to 4 percent.
BlackRock’s IBIT led the week with about $1.16 billion of the total. The daily pattern shows demand cooling as Treasury yields climbed: inflows ran at $999 million on Monday, then $715 million, $347 million, $191 million and $134.5 million by Friday. Every session stayed positive, but the pace dropped sharply, and the Friday number is less than a seventh of the Monday one.
Flows held through the rate hike
The hike itself was one of the most telegraphed moves of the year. Futures markets priced the increase at close to 90 percent before the meeting, so much of bitcoin’s weakness in the preceding weeks already reflected the repricing. What followed was not an exit but a slowdown. Ether funds drew roughly $690 million over the same week, a strong showing of their own, and the combined crypto ETF complex absorbed the higher rate environment without a single day of net selling in bitcoin products.
Traders watching the flows argue the steady bid matters more than any single day. The funds remain net buyers, and continued inflows could support price during the pullback. The slower pace, though, points to investors turning cautious as the 10-year Treasury yield moved above 5.2 percent, its highest since 2007. The S&P 500 posted its worst day since August in the same stretch, so bitcoin’s retreat sits inside a broader risk-off move rather than a crypto-specific one.
Price action and the support zone
Bitcoin pushed above $87,000 after the Fed decision, then eased back. It traded near $83,000 on Monday, down 1 to 2 percent on the day, with the $81,500 to $83,000 band flagged by several desks as the key support area. That zone marks the previous breakout level on the 3-day chart, the shelf the market built before the last leg higher. A close below it would undo the breakout structure and put the August consolidation back in play.
The chart picture is otherwise constructive. The 20-day EMA crossed above the 50-day EMA on the 3-day chart for the first time since November 2025, when the same pair crossed down near the start of the prior bear market. The move above $87,000 was the first higher high on higher timeframes since the bear market began. Bitcoin rallied from below $70,000 in August, consolidated near $80,000 for several weeks, then broke out again last week, a sequence that matches the pattern analysts look for when a downtrend ends.
On-chain and derivatives data back the accumulation story. Wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC added 113,950 coins since July 15, a stretch of steady buying by mid-sized holders that continued through the summer drawdown. Binance bitcoin open interest fell by roughly $500 million after the rally, a leverage reset one analyst described as fuel being cleared for the next leg rather than a top forming. Open interest now sits near the level it held before the previous advance toward $87,000, which in that earlier case preceded the move itself.
The yield problem
The main headwind is not the Fed’s rate decision but the bond market behind it. The 10-year yield jumped more than 18 basis points on September 23, its biggest one-day rise since April 2025, and moved above 5 percent as oil prices, inflation concerns and US debt issuance stayed in focus. Brent crude climbed past $107 a barrel as US-Iran talks stalled again, with President Trump rejecting an Iranian proposal for a seven-day ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Energy inflation feeds directly into the rate path, and the rate path feeds into yields.
A rate hike is a single decision with a known size. A bond selloff has no defined endpoint, because the market decides how far it runs. That asymmetry is why desks treat the yield path as the bigger risk to the crypto rally, even with ETF demand intact. Bitcoin is a non-yielding asset, and every basis point on the 10-year raises the bar for holding it. The dollar strengthened alongside yields, adding a second layer of pressure on dollar-priced risk assets including crypto.
What comes next
The macro calendar stays heavy. The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes August personal income and spending on September 30 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. September employment data follows on October 2 at the same time, with the ISM manufacturing report in the same week. Each release moves rate expectations, and rate expectations move yields, which is the chain that has driven bitcoin’s September swings.
For the ETF complex, the question is whether the weekly totals hold above the pace that kept 2026 flows positive through the spring, or fade toward the thin single-day numbers that marked the summer lull. The Monday-to-Friday fade inside last week suggests the answer may land in between. Last week’s $2.65 billion over five sessions through September 23 shows what the strong version of demand looks like; the $134.5 million Friday shows the weak one.
If demand holds through the yield pressure, the higher low structure stays intact and the $87,000 high comes back into play. If flows stall, the $81,500 to $83,000 support zone gets tested quickly, and a break there would put the August consolidation near $80,000 back in range. Either way, the ETF bid, not the price chart, is the thing to watch this week. Price follows the flows more often than the other way around in this cycle, and the flows have stayed positive through worse headlines than these.