Bitcoin holders have locked in $2.4 billion in profits since the climb toward $85,000 this quarter, but the pace of selling sits far below the levels recorded at previous market peaks, according to figures shared by Bitfinex.
Bitcoin traded near $84,000 on Friday, consolidating after a run that took it briefly above $87,000 earlier in the week. The coin is still up roughly 44 percent this quarter, its best three-month stretch since late 2024, following three consecutive quarters of losses. XRP gained about 2.5 percent and Solana rose more than 4 percent over the past day, per CoinDesk price data.
The profit-taking shows up in the net realized profit and loss metric, which records dollar gains when coins move on-chain above the price at which they last changed hands. If a coin bought at $40,000 is later sent or sold at $84,000, the $44,000 gap counts as realized profit. Elevated readings of this kind have historically clustered near cycle tops, which is why traders watch the gauge closely.
Bitfinex analysts put the recent tally at $2.4 billion and compared it with earlier cycles.
“BTC holders just realised $2.4bn in profits. At prior market tops, daily realized profits ran between $7bn and $10bn,” Bitfinex said in a post on X.
ETF demand is outpacing the sellers
Money flowing into US spot bitcoin ETFs has more than covered the realized profit so far. The funds logged $2.84 billion of net inflows across six straight sessions through Thursday, per Cryptonomist, citing SoSoValue data. That is a bigger figure than the profits holders realized over the same stretch.
The streak has also flipped the year-to-date ledger. After a $5.8 billion deficit at the end of June, the funds now sit on roughly $800 million in net inflows for 2026, CoinDesk reported. September alone has brought about $2.56 billion, on top of $3.52 billion in August.
| Session | Net inflow |
|---|---|
| Sept 21 | $999 million |
| Sept 22 | $714.8 million |
| Sept 23 | $347 million |
| Sept 24 | $191 million |
The daily totals have shrunk for three sessions in a row, and the Thursday figure was down 81 percent from the Monday peak. BlackRock IBIT dominated the latest session with about $163 million of the $191 million day total and has pulled in roughly $1.35 billion, close to half of the six-day sum. WisdomTree BTCW was the only fund with net outflows that day.
Ether flows point the same way
The ether market is flashing similar signals. Around 410,000 ETH has left exchanges over the past month, while US spot ether ETFs took in $680 million across four sessions, according to Bitfinex data cited by CoinDesk. Ether held near $2,690 on Friday.
Deleveraging has done some of the work
Part of the quarterly climb came from forced buying rather than fresh allocation. A nearly $16 billion bitcoin options expiry on Deribit on September 25 coincided with roughly $400 million in liquidations, mostly long positions. Combined open interest on centralized exchanges fell 14.3 percent between September 22 and September 25, a broad flush of leverage that cleared the way for the altcoin gains now showing up across XRP and Solana.
Markets shrug off the Bitget hack
None of the major coins showed visible stress after Bitget disclosed that a hack had drained about $452 million from the exchange, a figure the company raised from an initial $351.6 million estimate. CEO Gracy Chen said attackers used spoofed transfer data rather than stolen private keys, and Circle and Tether froze $318,000 in stablecoins tied to the incident.
Who is buying, and at what price
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart noted earlier in the week that the average bitcoin ETF buyer is now in profit, with the estimated ETF cost basis climbing above $81,722 for the first time since January. That matters for how the market absorbs the next bout of selling. A holder base sitting on gains behaves differently from one underwater on every dip, and the fund cohort has spent most of 2026 underwater.
CoinShares head of research James Butterfill argued on September 25 that the recent moves look flow driven rather than event driven, pointing to steady accumulation by large holders rather than reaction to a single headline. The distinction fits the tape: there was no single catalyst for the push past $87,000, just six sessions of fund creations and a slow drain of coins off exchanges.
On-chain positioning backs that read. Data shared by market analysts shows whales accumulated roughly $1.2 billion in bitcoin during 2026, and transfers of coins held longer than a year have fallen sharply this year after two heavy distribution years. Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn argued in July that most of the heavy long-term holder selling had already played out, with 2026 volumes expected to come in at less than half of last year level.
What would change the picture
The main risk to the setup is macro. The Federal Reserve raised rates in September for the first time in three years, and swaps price a further hike at the October 28 meeting with odds above 70 percent. A 10-year Treasury yield near 5.2 percent raises the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset, and any fresh jump in yields would test the inflow streak quickly.
Technicians are watching two levels. A close below $82,500, the neckline of a double bottom flagged by analyst Ali Charts, would weaken the bullish structure, while reclaiming $85,300 would confirm the uptrend per analyst Ted Pillows. The options market gives little direction: the $16 billion Deribit expiry has passed, leaving near-term positioning lighter than it was a week ago.
Macro conditions gave risk assets some room at the end of the week. Rallies in the dollar index and Treasury yields stalled, though the 10-year yield remains near 5.2 percent, its highest since 2007. Oil stayed volatile amid conflicting headlines on US-Iran talks over the Strait of Hormuz.
Analysts caution that cooling inflow figures cut both ways. For now, the combination of modest holder selling and steady fund demand is the most constructive reading the market has produced in months.