Bitcoin broke above $80,000 on Friday for the first time in more than a week, but one of Europe’s largest digital asset managers does not expect it to stay there. CoinShares says a decisive break above the level is unlikely before the end of the year without better inflation data or a change in the Federal Reserve’s stance.
James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, set out the firm’s view in a market update published Friday. The outlook, he wrote, has become more difficult over the past week for two reasons: the Senate’s failure to advance the CLARITY Act, the bill that would set the rules for US crypto markets, and a Federal Reserve message he described as firmly hawkish. Neither changes the long-term case for bitcoin, he argued, but both push the timing of a sustained recovery further out.
“A decisive break above US$80,000 is unlikely without either a meaningful improvement in the inflation outlook or a significant change in monetary policy expectations,” the update read.
The Fed did the damage
The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by a quarter point on Wednesday to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, the first increase since 2023. Projections released with the decision removed expected easing through 2027. Chair Kevin Warsh flagged more tightening ahead, with the oil shock tied to the war in Iran complicating the inflation picture.
Butterfill tied much of the drag to energy. Higher oil prices keep feeding inflation, leaving the Fed little reason to soften. Brent crude has traded above $100 a barrel since the Strait of Hormuz closed earlier this year, and the 10-year Treasury yield has hovered around 5%, a level that raises the bar for risk assets of every kind.
He also argued that bitcoin is shielded from the regulatory setback in a way other assets are not. Its legal status is already settled, he wrote. Ether and altcoins have no such protection, since much of the stablecoin payment infrastructure runs on those networks and their treatment under US law remains unresolved. That leaves ether more exposed to policy disappointment than bitcoin, even though both face the same monetary headwind.
VanEck sees it differently
VanEck’s Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research, told CNBC on Friday he expects bitcoin to reach $100,000 by next year. His case rests on government debt burdens: with deficits running large across major economies, he sees hard-capped assets like bitcoin attracting flows that fiat-linked holdings cannot. CoinShares treats that same bond-market pressure as a tail risk rather than its base case, though it notes a forceful liquidity response from central banks would lift both bitcoin and gold at the same time.
The disagreement is now a live test of whose macro read holds. Bitcoin traded near $78,000 when the CoinShares update was published, about 2% below the level the firm sees as the ceiling, then pushed through it hours later as traders looked past the CLARITY Act setback. Solana rose more than 10% over 24 hours to $112, its highest price in seven months, and Hyperliquid’s HYPE token led altcoin gains.
Flows point the other way
Near-term fund data leans toward the cautious view. US spot bitcoin ETFs saw their largest daily net outflow since June in the run-up to the Fed decision, with roughly $296 million leaving the funds in a single session as investors cut exposure before the policy announcement. Earlier in the week, crypto funds overall had recorded about $1.67 billion of outflows, the worst week for bitcoin ETPs this year, according to CoinShares’ own weekly flow data published Monday.
On-chain figures from Glassnode added to the caution. Bitcoin closed the week below its True Market Mean, an on-chain average of what holders paid for their coins. Below that level, the average holder sits at a loss, which historically adds overhead resistance as investors look to exit at break-even.
The regulatory hole
The CLARITY Act failed 49-50 in the Senate on Sept. 15, and stablecoin issuer Circle saw its stock fall 11% the next day. The bill would have divided oversight of crypto markets between the SEC and the CFTC, settling questions that have dragged on for years. Coinbase chief executive Brian Armstrong said after the vote that regulators could still build comparable rules without Congress, and the CFTC has moved in that direction, filing two crypto rulemaking packages with the White House days after the vote failed.
CoinShares expects a revised version of the bill as early as next year. In the meantime, the firm says, the market’s fate rests with the Fed and the oil market rather than with Congress. Derivatives desks reported that the rate hike itself was largely priced in before Wednesday, with bitcoin’s volatility running at about four times that of the S&P 500 in the two sessions before the decision, down from higher levels in prior cycles.
What would change the call
For the CoinShares ceiling to break, one of two things has to happen. Inflation would need to turn lower in a way the Fed can trust, opening the door to a pause. Or a liquidity event, such as central bank intervention in bond markets, would need to flood the system the way it did in previous easing cycles. Neither is the base case at the firm. VanEck’s bet, by contrast, needs no such turn: it only requires the fiscal picture to keep deteriorating on schedule.
For traders, the practical takeaway from the two camps is that the range is defined. CoinShares’ ceiling sits at $80,000. VanEck’s target sits at $100,000. The gap between them is the gap between a hawkish Fed and a fiscal one, and the next inflation print will do more to settle it than any Senate vote.