Bitcoin fell to near $80,000 on Thursday, a one-month low, with ether and XRP down about 6% and Solana down 9% as the market heads into the one-year anniversary of the October 2025 flash crash. The whole sector is now down double-digit percentages on the week, according to CoinDesk market data.
Bitcoin traded around $81,283 in afternoon New York hours, down 4% over 24 hours and more than 8% since it nearly touched $87,000 four days earlier. The last stretch of selling has been fast and one-sided, and thinner altcoin books took a worse beating than the largest coin. A week that began with talk of a renewed breakout toward record territory has instead erased most of September’s gains in five sessions, and traders who bought the earlier breakout are now sitting on fresh losses with leverage attached.
An awkward anniversary
The date matters to traders. It was October 10, 2025 when bitcoin, days after a euphoric record above $126,000, tumbled from about $122,000 to $105,000, with much of the drop happening in minutes during thin Friday evening trade in the US. Some venues printed even lower fills as market makers pulled quotes. The anniversary falls on Saturday this week, and the memory of that session hangs over every pullback that lands near mid-October.
Orders on several exchanges that evening sat deeper than usual, and stop-loss clusters triggered each other in a cascade that no single seller appeared to direct. Regulators in Asia and the US later opened reviews of how permissibly leveraged retail positions had been allowed to stack up before the crash. The episode changed how a whole generation of traders treats thin weekend liquidity, and some have already said they plan to reduce exposure ahead of Saturday.
Traders see more than symbolism in the current weakness. Oil has climbed again, with Brent trading above $100, and government bond yields have risen alongside it. Both squeeze risk assets, and crypto has been the first to flinch. There is also regulatory uncertainty after the CLARITY Act failed in the Senate, and midterm elections are still coming up that could shift the balance in Washington.
Who is still buying
The institutional picture reads differently from the price tape. In a State Street survey of 300 asset managers, asset owners and wealth managers published Tuesday, about 51% of respondents said they expect digital assets to become mainstream within five years, up from 11% in 2024. Respondents said they hold an average of 11% of their portfolios in digital assets and expect that share to rise over the next three years.
That survey sits awkwardly against the flows. Bitcoin ETFs have been bleeding for most of the week, with $487 million in net outflows on Wednesday, the heaviest single-day withdrawal since June. Ether ETFs have seen outflows for six straight days. Large holders appear to have stopped absorbing the sell pressure the way they did earlier in the year.
- Bitcoin: about $81,300, down 4% on the day, more than 8% from Friday’s high
- Ether and XRP: down about 6% over 24 hours
- Solana: down 9% on the day
- All three: down double digits over the past week
- Thursday’s coin moves came despite a firmer session in US equity futures
Outflows and positioning
The contrast with September is sharp. Back then, bitcoin reclaimed $80,000 after a summer shakeout and spent most of the second half of the month building a base above it. Funds saw net inflows for four consecutive weeks before the pace reversed. Analysts said at the time that smaller holders had capitulated during the July and August drop, with tens of thousands of wallets in the 0.1 to 1 BTC range disappearing from that bracket, which some read as a bottoming signal.
Whether that pattern repeats is the question. Onchain data shows a larger share of supply sitting at a loss than at any point since August, and long-term holders have started to move coins to exchanges again after months of dormancy. That is usually a late-stage sign rather than a bullish one, though it can also mark transfers to cold storage in advance of a further decline in trust of centralized venues.
What next
The week’s calendar offers little relief on the macro side. Higher oil keeps inflation expectations elevated, which keeps the Federal Reserve in hawkish territory, which keeps yields high. Fed minutes released earlier this week backed the September decision to raise rates and signaled one more to come.
Whether the market sets a local bottom before the weekend is an open question. Liquidations have cleared hundreds of millions of dollars of leveraged longs over the past three days, which sometimes exhausts selling pressure, but derivative positioning is still crowded enough that analysts expect more forced sales if bitcoin loses the $80,000 level on a sustained basis. Open interest on major venues remains above $55 billion, well off the peak from a year ago, yet still heavy enough that a single sharp candle can wipe out margin on both sides.
Funding rates across perpetual futures have turned negative on several venues for the first time since July, meaning shorts are paying longs to hold. That squeeze dynamic can flip fast if price stabilizes, but it also signals that Betting on further downside has become the crowded trade, a setup that historically ends with a violent move in the opposite direction once positioning gets too lopsided.
For now, the oldest advice in the trade applies: watch liquidation data, not sentiment. A quiet Friday keeps the flash crash anniversary a memory. A repeat of last year’s order book scramble would put the whole October narrative back on the table, and no one in the market wants a rerun.