The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo has killed more than 2,300 people and infected over 4,000, making it the deadliest in the country’s history as health agencies race to determine whether the virus is mutating into a more dangerous form.
The outbreak, caused by the Bundibugyo strain first identified in Uganda in 2007, has spread to six provinces since it was declared in May 2026. Over the past week, an average of 75 new cases and 35 deaths have been recorded daily, according to Africa CDC Director General Dr. Jean Kaseya, who said the outbreak has grown at eight times the pace of West Africa’s 2014-2020 epidemic.
Mutation Study Launched
Kaseya and WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus agreed to launch a joint study to investigate whether the virus is mutating to become more infectious, calling the level of severity unprecedented. A genomic analysis of 19 BDBV-2026 genomes from Ugandan cases has already identified substantial amino acid substitutions and the emergence of two distinct sub-groups of the virus, raising concerns about its evolutionary trajectory.
The Bundibugyo strain is particularly challenging because no approved vaccines or treatments exist for it. The existing Ervebo vaccine targets the Zaire strain and may offer only partial protection. Oxford University and the Serum Institute of India have begun Phase 1 clinical trials of a Bundibugyo-specific vaccine candidate in Britain, while Moderna is expected to begin testing its own candidate shortly.
Community Deaths Outpace Hospitals
Perhaps the most alarming indicator is that 67 percent of all Ebola deaths are occurring in communities rather than health facilities, usually identified only through post-mortem testing. Contact tracing has been weak, with an average of just 10 contacts recorded per patient in the DRC compared to more than 40 during Uganda’s contained Bundibugyo outbreak.
Uganda achieved a 10 percent case fatality rate by administering the antiviral Remdesivir to every patient. A WHO trial of the drug is underway in the DRC but has enrolled only 68 participants so far. A separate trial of the antiviral MPP134 is operating at three clinical management facilities in Ituri province, in partnership with medical charities ALIMA and Doctors Without Borders.
Around 140 health workers have been infected, and several protests and strikes over unpaid wages have disrupted the response. The US State Department has pledged an additional 242 million dollars in funding, bringing total US assistance to over 512 million dollars, with an additional 350 million dollars available for broader humanitarian assistance in the DRC, South Sudan, and Uganda.
The outbreak’s epicenter in Ituri province is compounded by ongoing armed conflict involving the M23 group, which has hindered response efforts and population movement tracking. Internet connectivity via Starlink is being extended to all villages in Ituri to improve real-time data collection, and the response is being taken to the village level across the province’s 6,542 villages.
Sources: Africa CDC; WHO; MedicalBrief; Reuters; Bloomberg; CDC; Health Policy Watch
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