The US Energy Information Administration’s August 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook projects American liquefied natural gas exports will climb from 15.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 to 18.6 bcf/d by late 2027, nearly doubling the 11.9 bcf/d recorded in 2025.
The growth trajectory reflects the coming online of new export capacity, including Mexico’s Energia Costa Azul terminal and expanded pipeline flows to Mexican liquefaction facilities. The EIA noted that increased use of US natural gas for power generation south of the border is also driving higher cross-border pipeline volumes.
Maintenance Weighs on Near-Term Output
Third-quarter 2026 LNG exports are forecast at 16.5 bcf/d, slightly lower than the previous month’s projection, due to ongoing maintenance at the Freeport LNG facility in Texas. The reduced feedgas demand from maintenance has contributed to storage levels sitting above the five-year average in the South Central region at the end of July.
Henry Hub natural gas spot prices are projected at $3.53 per million BTU for 2026, declining to $3.44 in 2027 and $3.31 in 2028. The relatively modest price forecast suggests the EIA expects supply growth to keep pace with rising export demand and domestic consumption.
Coal Continues Long Decline
| Source | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural gas | 42% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Coal | 16% | 17% | 16% | 15% |
| Nuclear | 19% | 18% | 18% | 18% |
| Wind + Solar | 17% | 18% | 19% | 20% |
| Hydropower | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
Coal’s share of US electricity generation is forecast to slip from 17 percent in 2026 to 15 percent by 2028, continuing a decade-long structural decline. Nuclear generation holds steady at 18 percent, while wind and solar are projected to rise from 18 percent to 20 percent over the same period, building on the milestone achieved in the first half of 2026 when renewables surpassed coal and nuclear combined for the first time.
The forecast comes amid ongoing tensions between the administration’s push to maintain coal-fired generation through emergency orders and the market-driven shift toward cheaper gas and renewables. The Department of Energy has issued 19 emergency orders to prevent coal plant closures, citing grid reliability concerns, even as market forces continue to erode coal’s competitive position.
Sources: US Energy Information Administration August 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook; EIA Natural Gas Export Data
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