Bitcoin held near $77,300 on Sunday as markets all but priced in a Federal Reserve rate hike, with prediction markets and futures traders putting the odds above 85 percent ahead of the September 16 decision. The shift followed an August inflation report that came in hotter than economists expected, and it capped a rough week for US spot bitcoin ETFs, which recorded outflows in every trading session.
Polymarket bettors put a 25 basis point hike at roughly 83 to 87 percent by Saturday, up from about 50 percent before the August consumer price index landed on September 11. CME FedWatch futures ran slightly hotter, near 86 percent. Kalshi, the regulated prediction market, showed closely aligned estimates. A hike would be the first since 2023 and would lift the federal funds target range from 3.50 to 3.75 percent up to 3.75 to 4.00 percent. Combined trading volume on Polymarket and Kalshi for the September decision has exceeded $190 million, one of the highest-volume books Polymarket has hosted.
The CPI report showed headline inflation at 3.4 percent year over year, unchanged from July, while core CPI rose 0.3 percent on the month, above the 0.2 percent consensus. Producer price data released earlier in the week added to the pressure, with the PPI up 5.4 percent year over year. Former Fed vice chair Richard Clarida told markets the move would not be a one-off. “If we get a hike next week, certainly we’ll get additional ones,” he said. TD Securities went further, forecasting three hikes this cycle, with follow-ups in October and January. Traders now see at least three hikes through June 2027, a striking reversal from the start of the year, when markets priced in four cuts over the same window.
The week the flows turned
US spot bitcoin ETFs shed $462.7 million across the four sessions of the week ending September 11, snapping a three-week inflow streak that had pulled in $3.8 billion, the strongest institutional accumulation run of the year. US markets were closed Monday, September 7, for Labor Day, leaving four sessions to do the damage. September 8 started with $46.6 million in outflows, September 9 added $120.2 million, and September 10 delivered the week’s worst print at $282.7 million, more than half the total. Friday’s $13.2 million was small but kept the week’s record clean at four for four.
| Session | Net flow |
|---|---|
| September 8 | -$46.6M |
| September 9 | -$120.2M |
| September 10 | -$282.7M |
| September 11 | -$13.2M |
| Week total | -$462.7M |
ARK 21Shares’ ARKB led redemptions with roughly $250.3 million for the week, including $164.3 million on September 10 alone, a sharp reversal from a $138 million inflow just seven sessions earlier. Grayscale’s GBTC lost about $129.1 million, a bleed that is partly structural given its 1.5 percent expense ratio, the highest in the category, against BlackRock’s IBIT at 0.25 percent. That fee gap has driven rotation all year. Total ETF net assets fell to $97.49 billion, back under the $100 billion line the funds crossed on September 3, after peaking at $103.3 billion on September 4.
The selling coincided with a bond market under strain. The 10-year Treasury yield touched 4.979 percent intraday, its highest level since 2023, and the 30-year briefly hit 5.38 percent. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s expanded buyback program, meant to calm the long end, disappointed traders instead, and yields kept climbing. Higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like bitcoin and strengthen the dollar, both headwinds for crypto.
What traders watch next
Bitcoin briefly touched $79,890 on September 12 before retreating, and it has now failed several attempts to hold above $80,000. The 50-week exponential moving average sits near $77,400, and a weekly close below it would open the $72,000 area, analysts at The Market Periodical noted. On-chain data adds to the caution: Binance’s bitcoin reserves climbed above 693,000 BTC, a two-year high and roughly 30 percent of reserves across major exchanges, and short-term holder exchange inflows flipped positive, a sign of profit-taking. Long-term holders have also sold into the $77,100 to $80,200 band this year, building a supply wall just above spot.
Ethereum told a different story. Ether ETFs took in $216 million on September 11 while bitcoin funds bled, and ether held above $2,500. XRP funds saw zero flows. The split suggests institutions are rotating within crypto rather than leaving it, though the week’s aggregate picture was unmistakably negative.
CoinShares summed up the macro bind in a Friday note: persistent inflation could keep Fed policy restrictive and cap bitcoin below $80,000, but a failed Treasury effort to lower long-term yields could trigger stronger intervention and support the asset. The firm called the latest inflation data “not particularly helpful for Bitcoin,” and said a sustained break above $80,000 would need softer economic data, a more dovish Fed, or another policy catalyst.
The outcome that would actually move prices is the one markets rate least likely. A surprise hold on September 16 would remove the tightening already priced in and probably lift bitcoin and XRP together. A delivered 25 basis point hike is largely baked in, so the bigger tell will be the dot plot and the tone of the press conference. KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk argued the Fed needs to act for its own credibility, writing that “the burn of inflation is just too costly” and that a unanimous vote would help. Either way, bitcoin enters the week pinned between a supply wall near $80,000 and a central bank that looks ready to move.