Ethiopian federal forces and TPLF fighters clashed in western Tigray on August 1, shattering the November 2022 Pretoria peace deal that ended one of Africa’s deadliest recent wars and raising fears of a return to full-scale conflict in the Horn of Africa.
The fighting erupted near the town of Sheraro in western Tigray, pressed against Ethiopia’s border with Sudan. Tigrayan military sources accused federal forces of launching a large-scale infantry offensive against their positions, while Addis Ababa did not formally respond to the allegations. Federal Minister Abraham Belay instead denounced the TPLF on social media for catalysing the conflict. Hundreds of Ethiopians fled across the border into Sudan within days of the clashes.
Drone Strike Kills Civilians
On August 11, Tigrayan military sources alleged that the Ethiopian military killed three fighters and injured seven others in a drone strike on a secondary school in northern Tigray. District Governor Daniel Tamrat claimed the same attack killed four civilians and wounded another. The Ethiopian federal government has not responded to the accusations. The strike marked a significant escalation, introducing aerial targeting into a conflict that had previously been confined to ground engagements.
The Council on Foreign Relations classified the Ethiopia conflict as worsening in its August update, noting that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed now faces simultaneous insurgencies in Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia. Abiy’s Prosperity Party won a large parliamentary majority in June 2026 elections, but the victories have not translated into stability across the country’s restive northern and central regions.
Eritrea’s Expanding Role
Eritrea’s backing of dissident factions and a military buildup along the shared border with Ethiopia raise the prospect of interstate war with consequences for the wider Horn of Africa. Eritrean forces were implicated in atrocities during the 2020-2022 Tigray war, and their renewed involvement threatens to complicate any future peace negotiations. Analysts warn that the convergence of multiple insurgencies could destabilise a region already grappling with the Sudanese civil war next door.
The International Organization for Migration reported that Ethiopian nationals accounted for 91 percent of migrants arriving in Yemen in July 2026, driven by rising insecurity across multiple regions and limited domestic economic opportunities. The mass displacement underscores the broadening humanitarian toll of Ethiopia’s deteriorating security landscape.
Background: A War That Never Truly Ended
The 2020-2022 Tigray war killed an estimated 600,000 people according to the African Union, making it one of the deadliest conflicts of the 21st century. The Pretoria peace deal ended major hostilities, but deep mistrust persisted between the TPLF and the federal government. Tigray was left in ruins, with its capital handed over to a federally appointed interim administration that the TPLF never fully accepted.
The resumption of fighting represents the most serious breach of the peace accord since it was signed, and threatens to undo fragile progress on disarmament, reintegration, and transitional justice. With both sides entrenched and external actors including Eritrea and regional militias drawn in, the path back to negotiation appears increasingly narrow.
Sources: Council on Foreign Relations Global Conflict Tracker; Al Jazeera; BBC; International Organization for Migration
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