Bitcoin could get more support from investors than gold if hedging in crypto exchange-traded funds cools, JPMorgan analysts said in a note published Wednesday, pointing to a widening gap in how the two assets’ ETF markets have recovered from this year’s outflows.
The bank’s team, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, found that gold ETFs have recovered all of the outflows recorded earlier in 2026. Bitcoin ETFs have recovered only about half. Both asset classes drew inflows after the Federal Reserve’s late-July meeting, when the debasement trade returned and investors rotated into hard assets as a hedge against fiscal deficits and monetary expansion.
That trade weakened over the past week. Inflation-adjusted bond yields rose, and the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act in a procedural vote on Monday. Spot bitcoin ETFs shed $450.4 million on Tuesday and another $295.9 million on Wednesday, a two-day total of $746.3 million, according to Farside Investors. The Fed’s 25-basis-point hike to 4.00% on September 16, the first since 2023, added to the pressure on risk assets. Combined with ether fund redemptions, crypto ETF outflows over the two sessions topped $1.1 billion.
Skeptical positioning on IBIT
The core of the argument is positioning rather than flows. Short interest in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) remains close to its highest level this year, the analysts wrote. Short interest in SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) sits below its historical average. The put-to-call open interest ratio is also higher for IBIT than for GLD, which the bank reads as heavier hedging around bitcoin.
“This contrast suggests that bitcoin still faces an overall more sceptical positioning backdrop than gold, perhaps due to more elevated hedging demand, despite the recent inflows and build up of futures positioning,” the analysts wrote.
If that hedging unwinds, bitcoin has more mechanical room to recover than gold, because closing short positions requires buying. Gold, with shorts already below average, has less of that fuel left. The same logic cuts the other way: a short base near a yearly high can amplify selling if hedging demand keeps building. Traders betting against IBIT have been paid through the autumn, and nothing in the current flow data forces them to cover yet.
Where the flows stand
Cumulative net flows into US spot bitcoin ETFs stand near $55 billion, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas noted this week, down from a peak of $63 billion but above the $50 billion low. He favors the metric because it strips out price appreciation and measures actual investor commitment rather than the market value of the funds, which moves with bitcoin’s price.
Gold’s recovery has been faster. Gold ETF demand returned after the July Fed meeting and has since erased the year’s earlier redemptions, while bitcoin funds remain well below their highs. Futures positioning in both markets is elevated, which the analysts read as institutions staying engaged rather than exiting either asset. The distinction matters because it separates tactical hedging from strategic allocation: futures books are full, but the derivatives market is still pricing bitcoin as the riskier of the two.
| Metric | Gold ETFs | Bitcoin ETFs |
|---|---|---|
| Recovery of 2026 outflows | Complete | About half |
| Short interest | Below historical average (GLD) | Near 2026 high (IBIT) |
| Put-to-call open interest | Lower | Higher |
| Net flows, Sept. 15-16 | Not comparable | -$746.3 million |
| Cumulative net flows | Recovered to prior levels | About $55 billion |
What would change the picture
The thesis depends on news flow. A constructive outcome on market-structure legislation after the CLARITY setback, or a pause in the rate-hike cycle, would likely reduce hedging demand first in crypto, where the positioning is most defensive. The House Ways and Means Committee advanced the Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act 38-5 this week, a sign that legislative work continues despite the Senate stumble on CLARITY. The House Financial Services Committee also approved a strategic bitcoin reserve bill 28-21 on Wednesday.
Bitcoin traded near $76,000 on Thursday, down roughly 40% from its October 2025 record above $126,000. The recovery above $76,500 on Wednesday came as markets digested the Fed decision, but analysts flagged a $6.3 billion wall of IBIT options expiring Friday, with about 1.47 million contracts concentrated at strikes corresponding to bitcoin prices between roughly $70,900 and $79,700. That positioning sits on top of the short-interest dynamic JPMorgan describes, and both point the same direction: a lot of money is positioned for bitcoin to do nothing or fall.
Why the comparison matters now
Gold and bitcoin have traded as a pair since the debasement trade returned in the summer, and the correlation between the two has risen to its highest level since 2020, according to Bitwise. That makes the relative-positioning question practical rather than academic. Asset allocators choosing between the two ETF complexes are effectively choosing which short base they want to ride. Gold offers a market already positioned for more gains. Bitcoin offers a market positioned against them, with more room to unwind if the macro backdrop improves.
JPMorgan stops short of calling a turn. The note frames the hedging gap as potential energy, not a forecast. For that energy to release, something has to change in the news flow that made investors hedge in the first place. Until then, the $746 million that left bitcoin funds this week is the market’s current answer, and the bank’s argument is simply that this answer is more reversible than it looks.