JPMorgan estimates around $50 billion of inflows have gone into digital assets this year, with the pace accelerating into the fourth quarter after ETFs recovered from a weak first half, analysts at the bank said in a report dated October 7.
The inflows equal an annualized pace of about $66 billion, up from $52 billion the bank measured in May. It is still roughly half of last year’s rate, before the industry slid into a prolonged crypto winter. Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou calculate the figure using crypto fund flows, the flow signal implied by CME futures data, crypto venture fundraising and purchases by listed miners and corporate treasury companies. They expanded the estimate this year to include private corporate treasuries, private miners and government-related entities.
ETFs recovered after May and June
Crypto ETF flows were the year’s weak point through mid-year. Heavy outflows in May and June left cumulative numbers negative, and the recovery began only in August. By early October flows have turned positive for the calendar year, The Block reports, though measured from the correction that started October 10, 2025, the bank notes the net figure is still negative.
September showed how fast sentiment can move. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in $999 million on September 21, the largest single-day inflow of the year, followed by $714.7 million the next day, according to Farside Investors. Over the week of September 21 to 25 the funds drew roughly $2.4 billion. That positive run then reversed: $484.9 million left bitcoin ETFs on October 7, the biggest single-day outflow since June 25, and another $244.1 million exited on October 8 before flows stabilized with a small $21.1 million inflow on October 9, per crypto.news.
The volatility matters because it shows how fragile ETF-driven demand can be compared with treasury buying. “In Q3 both ETF flows and futures positioning have increased,” the analysts wrote, “pointing to greater participation by both retail and institutional investors, thus creating a positive flow momentum into Q4.”
Futures positions hit new peaks
Beyond ETFs, CME futures positioning has climbed sharply over two months. Bitcoin’s open interest has moved above its previous all-time high, while Ether positioning has come close to its October 2025 peak, a signal JPMorgan reads as institutions more willing to take directional bets on the asset class after a slow start to 2026.
The shift follows months of weak momentum in futures, which had tracked the broader correction through early 2026. Combined with the ETF flow recovery, the bank reads it as broader participation from traders beyond just corporate treasuries and venture capital, the two forces that drove most inflows in the first half.
Notably, the expansion in open interest has come alongside rising activity from commodity trading advisers and trend-following funds, two groups that tend to chase momentum once it establishes rather than predict it. That means positional setup can now amplify moves in either direction if prices stay in a range.
Miners sold, treasuries bought less
Strategy, led by early-year bitcoin purchases, supplied a large share of inflows in the first half, JPMorgan notes, before that activity tapered. Private corporate treasuries bought smaller amounts, which the analysts link to less flexible financing and lower tolerance for bitcoin’s price swings. Financings for listed treasury companies have shifted toward preferred shares rather than common equity, a sign the market for new bitcoin-buying capital is tightening.
On the supply side, bitcoin miners have sold a net $1.8 billion of coins this year, an amount the analysts describe as modest. Publicly listed miners drove the selling, often to fund artificial intelligence infrastructure investments rather than routine operations, a pattern that has accelerated across the sector. This aligns with MARA Holdings’ decision to sell 996 bitcoin, worth $81 million, to Galaxy Digital this week as it reorients toward AI and high-performance computing.
Price still not confirming
Bitcoin remains under pressure despite improving flows. The asset traded near $82,448 on October 9, down about 31 percent from a year ago, and peaked near $126,080 in October 2025. InvestIn.News observes that a positive headline number coexists with a negative ledger since the 2025 correction, which puts the recovery in context.
Ether also remains range-bound and has been weighed down by outflows from its own ETFs. The JPMorgan report frames the Q4 outlook as a bet that ETF and futures buyers can hold the bid if ETF inflows continue, and notes that a reversal would need both to retrace at once. The net picture is one of gradual recovery, not boom.
What to watch
The report flags three near-term tests for whether the momentum story holds: daily ETF net flows, which need to stay positive; CME futures open interest, which should remain above its previous peak; and whether treasury companies resume large-scale buying after a slowdown in the second half.
Analysts at other banks have reached similar conclusions on the direction of flows, though estimates vary. JPMorgan’s framing of the recovery as “half last year’s pace” frames the year as a stabilization, not a boom, and any further acceleration would need fresh institutional demand to offset the selling pressure still present from miners and intermittent retail redemptions.
For readers tracking the broader crypto economy, the size of the $50 billion figure is worth comparing with the collapse in venture funding. Activity there has stayed muted through 2026, following a broader trend of private market caution in tech broadly, and the analysts make no forecast for a venture funding rebound before the new year.