Oil prices held near their lowest levels in weeks on Tuesday as recovering Middle East exports and a planned Group of Seven release of emergency stockpiles offset warnings from renewed attacks on Saudi supply sites. Brent settled 0.3 percent higher at $100.58 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate edged up one cent to $89.44, Business Recorder reported, after earlier losses put Brent on track for its weakest close since early September.
The relief valve
Three supply-side factors pushed prices down from recent highs. Around 12 million barrels per day of crude and 2 million barrels of refined products left the Middle East on tankers in the last seven to ten days, levels commodity trading firm Vitol’s chief executive described on Tuesday as the volumes needed to dampen price pressure. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Tuesday that flows through the East-West Pipeline, which runs to the Red Sea export hub of Yanbu, had reached 5.8 million barrels as of Tuesday morning. And the G7 agreed on Friday to release up to 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from strategic reserves over the next four months, coordinated through the International Energy Agency, in a move US President Donald Trump described as Europe making a major world contribution alongside the United States.
The G7 agreed to a substantial diesel release on Oct. 2, following pressure from Washington, which had threatened to restrict US diesel exports if Europe did not contribute more of its own stocked fuel. Trump said afterwards that he would hold off on the export ban. “Europe has a lot of diesel and they’re going to be making a major world contribution, and so are we,” the president told reporters, according to Bloomberg. The release works out to roughly one day of global oil demand spread across four months, with a substantial frontloaded diesel drawdown planned in the next 20 days.
The complication
None of these moves have been enough to erase the supply risks keeping prices elevated. Yemen’s Houthis targeted airports in the Saudi cities of Jazan and Najran on Monday evening, injuring three people and causing limited damage, the Saudi aviation authority said. The attacks came as Saudi-backed government forces continued a ground offensive in Yemen to recapture territory the group took in recent weeks, and less than a week after Houthi strikes on the Aramco refinery near Riyadh and the Khurais field. The Houthis have also kept firing on ships in the Red Sea, keeping shipping insurers and tanker owners on alert, and continuing to complicate transit through one of the world’s busiest trade corridors.
Details of the diesel release are still being worked out. The International Energy Agency will meet next week to decide how many barrels Europe and the US plan to make available, Reuters reported, amid confusion over the exact volumes and timing. No country-by-country allocations have been published, and the IEA itself has not yet confirmed which members will participate in the crude component versus the diesel component, which adds uncertainty for traders trying to model how much product actually reaches the market in the coming weeks.
The demand side
Diesel has become the main pressure point for consumers and politicians alike. United States diesel futures moved above $5 a gallon, retail diesel in parts of Europe approached $6 a gallon, and European gasoil futures traded near $200 a barrel. The wars in Iran and the Ukraine conflict have cut exports and damaged refineries that normally supply the market, while a recovery in global demand from a May low is compounding the squeeze. Governments are increasingly treating fuel prices as an economic and political concern rather than purely a commodity market matter, and US midterm elections are approaching, adding a domestic political dimension to the White House push to cool prices.
| Benchmark | Settlement Oct. 6 | Reference |
|---|---|---|
| Brent | $100.58, up 0.3% | Lows around $98 a barrel intraday |
| WTI | $89.44, up $0.01 | Lows near $88 |
| US retail diesel | Above $5 per gallon | Retail near $6 in parts of Europe |
| European gasoil | Near $200 per barrel | Near record levels |
| Middle East exports | About 12 mb/d crude plus 2 mb/d products | Last 7 to 10 days |
What comes next
A 100 percent chance of a tropical cyclone forming in the Gulf of Mexico over the next seven days, per the US National Hurricane Center, adds another wild card. A storm in the US Gulf could shut oil and natural gas production and damage energy infrastructure, boosting prices at the worst possible time. Separately, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Tuesday that latest intelligence suggested Russia was preparing a massive attack, which would put additional supply at risk if it hits export infrastructure. Russia was the third-largest crude producer behind the US and Saudi Arabia in 2025, so any disruption to its seaborne barrels has outsize effect on European prices in particular.
The US Energy Information Administration raised its Brent forecast to an average of $105 a barrel for the fourth quarter in its October 6 Short-Term Energy Outlook, up $11 from the prior month, citing continued inventory draws and the tight diesel market. The agency expects prices will eventually ease toward $84 by mid-2027 provided Gulf flows recover. Traders will be watching two near-term data points: the IEA meeting on diesel release details, and US weekly inventories on Wednesday morning, with the market currently expecting a modest crude build and continued pressure on product stocks. Until the stockpile release actually moves barrels and word of a diplomatic opening arrives from the Middle East, price risk likely remains on the upside despite this week’s softer tape.