OPEC+ completed the full rollback of its 2023 voluntary production cuts on Sunday, approving a final September output increase of 188,000 barrels per day across seven member nations. The decision marks the end of a gradual normalization process that began over a year ago, restoring the group’s combined production capacity to pre-cut levels.
The seven nations adjusting their quotas from September are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, and Algeria. Each will add a further 188,000 barrels per day to their respective allocations, bringing the total unwind to roughly 2.2 million barrels per day since the cuts first began being reversed in early 2025.
Crucially, multiple sources told Reuters that OPEC+ is now likely to pause further output hikes after the September increase, with no additional quota adjustments expected until at least 2027. The pause reflects a careful balancing act between restoring production discipline and responding to a volatile market shaped by the ongoing US-Iran conflict, disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and weakening global demand signals.
The decision comes at a turbulent moment for oil markets. Brent crude has fallen sharply over the past week, dropping more than 12 percent to around $79 per barrel as hopes for a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have gained traction. The steep decline has erased much of the war premium that had pushed prices above $100 in recent months.
Despite the production normalization, OPEC+ leaders have emphasized that the group retains significant spare capacity and remains ready to intervene if market conditions deteriorate further. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has repeatedly warned that the cartel will not hesitate to reverse course and reimpose cuts if oversupply threatens price stability.
Market analysts note that the September hike may have limited practical impact given the disruptions already weighing on supply. The closure and partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has removed significant tanker traffic from the market, and the geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Iran continues to cloud the outlook for the fourth quarter. Several trading houses have warned that global fuel stocks remain at dangerously low levels despite the production increase.
The completion of the rollback also closes a contentious chapter for the alliance. The original 2023 cuts had been a source of friction between Saudi Arabia and other members, particularly the UAE, which pushed for higher baseline quotas. The September decision effectively settles those disputes, with each nation now operating under updated production targets that reflect their expanded capacity.
Sources: Reuters, Oil and Gas Journal, Petroleum Australia
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