Europe’s underground natural gas storage has fallen to its lowest level in 15 years, raising alarm across the continent as analysts warn the ongoing disruption to Strait of Hormuz shipping could leave the European Union dangerously exposed heading into the winter heating season.
Storage facilities across the EU are currently filled to roughly 76 percent of capacity, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, marking the weakest position since 2011 and well below the bloc’s recommended 80 percent target ahead of winter. The shortfall is driven by a combination of a harsh previous winter that depleted reserves and a sharp slowdown in liquefied natural gas deliveries caused by the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran.
Hormuz Disruptions Cut LNG Flows
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global LNG shipments normally pass, has been partially blocked since the conflict began in February. Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, both major LNG exporters, have seen production and shipping volumes drop significantly as the naval standoff disrupts tanker traffic through the waterway. European LNG imports have slowed sharply as a result, with cargoes diverted or delayed amid elevated shipping costs and security risks.
“Low European inventories, strong Asian demand and limited new LNG supply growth almost guarantee elevated prices through this winter and into 2027,” Bryn Jones, head of fixed income at Rathbones Asset Management, told Reuters. The Dutch TTF benchmark, which sets the tone for European gas pricing, has remained above pre-conflict levels for months despite intermittent dips.
Record Low in Key Storage Hubs
The situation is particularly acute in the Netherlands, home to the TTF hub. Dutch storage reserves plunged to just 5.8 percent of capacity by the end of the last heating season, the lowest reading in a decade. Germany, Europe’s largest gas consumer, entered the refill season with storage at roughly 20 percent, well below the 35 to 40 percent typically seen at this point in the year. France has also underperformed, with reserves around 27 percent compared to a seasonal norm closer to 35 percent.
The European Commission’s Energy Union Task Force met in July to assess the outlook and concluded there was “no immediate security of supply concern,” noting that storage filling targets remained achievable. But analysts have pushed back on that assessment, arguing that without a rapid normalization of Hormuz shipping lanes, the math does not add up.
Winter Scenarios Raise the Stakes
Three scenarios are now being modeled by market analysts. Under a moderate disruption scenario with Hormuz access restricted for three more months, European storage could reach 60 to 65 percent by October, with TTF prices approaching or exceeding 90 euros per megawatt hour. A colder-than-average winter combined with extended disruption would push storage below 60 percent and trigger emergency demand reduction measures.
Some European governments have already begun contingency planning. Brussels has launched a revision of its Oil Stocks Directive to incorporate lessons from the current crisis, and the Commission is weighing further demand-reduction targets. Meanwhile, the EU has purchased record volumes of Russian LNG through the Yamal facility in the first half of 2026, even as it prepares to phase out remaining Russian energy imports, underscoring the severity of the supply crunch.
The stakes extend beyond household heating bills. European industrial output remains sensitive to gas prices, and a prolonged supply shortage could compound the economic headwinds already facing the bloc from trade tensions with the United States and sluggish growth in major economies including Germany.
Sources: Reuters; Gas Infrastructure Europe; Financial Times; European Commission Energy Union Task Force
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