Sweden’s September 13 general election is shaping up to be the closest contest in years, with the centre-left opposition bloc clinging to a narrow lead over Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s governing coalition and its far-right ally.
According to aggregated polling data from Polara, which compiles results from 64 polls across nine Swedish pollsters, the left-wing opposition bloc led by the Social Democrats currently polls at 45.5 percent on a 30-day moving average, compared to 43.5 percent for the right-wing government coalition. The centre-left lead has narrowed significantly from the 10-point margin recorded in earlier surveys, suggesting the race is tightening as Election Day approaches.
A Bloomberg report from August 26 confirmed that the governing coalition and its far-right partner have been gaining ground in recent weeks. The survey data, based on the latest Verian poll from August 16 covering 3,043 respondents, shows the Social Democrats at 30.5 percent, while the Sweden Democrats sit at 18.5 percent and the Moderates at 17.3 percent.
Who Is Running and What Do They Want
Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson, who served as prime minister from 2021 to 2022 before losing power to the current coalition, is widely expected to return to the role if the opposition wins. Polling consistently shows her with a significant lead over Kristersson in personal favourability, with voters expressing greater confidence in her ability to lead the country.
Kristersson’s coalition, which took office in October 2022 with support from the Sweden Democrats, has struggled with declining public confidence. The Liberals, a junior coalition partner, are polling at just 1.9 percent, well below the 4 percent threshold needed to enter parliament. If the Liberals fail to cross that line, it would cost the coalition several seats and further weaken Kristersson’s position.
The Sweden Democrats, the country’s second-largest party at 19.6 percent on the 30-day average, have positioned themselves as the driving force behind the government’s restrictive migration policies. Their continued strength reflects the enduring appeal of their anti-immigration platform, even as the party faces ongoing controversy over its historical ties to far-right movements.
Key Issues Driving the Campaign
The Swedish election is being fought primarily over domestic concerns rather than foreign policy. Crime and gang violence remain the top issue for voters, with a series of high-profile shootings and bombings over the past year keeping public safety at the forefront of the campaign. The governing coalition has pointed to its stricter migration policies as evidence of progress, while the opposition argues that reduced police funding under the current government has hampered law enforcement efforts.
Healthcare and the cost of living round out the top three issues. Sweden’s national health service has faced growing criticism over long waiting times, and the government’s austerity measures have put pressure on household budgets. The Social Democrats have pledged to increase public spending on healthcare and education, while the Moderates have focused on tax cuts and deregulation to stimulate economic growth.
Climate policy has also featured in the campaign, though it has taken a back seat to crime and the economy. The Green Party, polling at 7.7 percent, has pushed for more aggressive emissions targets, while the government coalition has prioritised energy security and nuclear power expansion.
What the Numbers Mean
Historically, Swedish polls have been reasonably accurate, though the 2022 election surprised many observers when the right-wing coalition performed better than expected. Current projections from Polara suggest the opposition would win approximately 194 seats in the 349-seat Riksdag, compared to around 155 for the government bloc. The Centre Party, polling at 8 percent, could hold the balance of power as a potential coalition partner for either side.
The significance of this election extends beyond Sweden’s borders. A change of government would shift the country’s position on EU policy, defence spending, and relations with Russia. Under Kristersson, Sweden has pursued closer NATO ties and taken a firm stance on supporting Ukraine. The Social Democrats have broadly supported this direction but have signalled they would seek a more multilateral approach to European security.
With just 17 days until voters head to the polls, both campaigns are entering their final stretch. The narrowing gap means every debate, every gaffe, and every late-breaking issue could tip the balance. For Europe, the result will determine whether one of the continent’s most prosperous nations continues on its current rightward trajectory or shifts back toward the social democratic model that defined Swedish politics for most of the postwar era.
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