Bitcoin traded near $84,500 on Saturday after a week in which the price first cleared $87,000 and then fell back with the dollar and Treasury yields still setting the tone. The token is up about 9% over 30 days but remains roughly 33% below its all-time high of $126,080. The pullback followed a jobs report released Thursday that showed payrolls rose just 29,000 against forecasts near 90,000, a print that flipped a short squeeze into a sell-off and pushed bitcoin under $86,000. It had briefly traded above $86,885 as easing Treasury yields and a wave of short liquidations lifted the market before the data hit.
Ethereum slipped 1.25% over 24 hours to about $2,669, and Solana edged up 0.2% to near $119. Total crypto market capitalization sits around $1.70 trillion. Traders are watching two levels: support concentrated between $83,000 and $84,000, and a sustained move above $87,000 that would restore near-term momentum. A break of the lower boundary would matter more, because leveraged positioning sits underneath the price.
ETF flows split by token
Fund flows tell a mixed story. United States spot bitcoin ETFs took in $102.67 million on October 1, lifting cumulative inflows to $57.60 billion. For the week from September 28 to October 2, bitcoin funds recorded net inflows of $82.9 million, a sharp slowdown from the $2.98 billion they gathered in seven straight sessions through September 25. The late-September peak was about $999 million in a single day. Money is still coming in, but the pace has fallen to a fraction of it.
| Fund | Flow Oct 1 | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin ETFs | +$102.7M | $57.60B |
| Ethereum ETFs | -$55.4M | n/a |
| Solana ETFs | -$5.9M | ~$1.6B since launch |
| XRP ETFs | +$4.1M | $1.79B |
Ethereum funds lost $55.37 million in a day, led by outflows from Grayscale and Fidelity products, after a seven-day streak had brought in about $850 million. Solana funds kept bleeding, down $5.9 million on the day after an $11.1 million outflow on September 30 ended a record week of $188 million, of which Bitwise’s BSOL captured $128 million. XRP funds returned to green with $4.07 million after two quiet days, split between Bitwise at $3.18 million and Franklin Templeton at $4.06 million in gross terms.
On-chain supply tightens around XRP
The on-chain picture supports the supply story. Glassnode data shows XRP exchange balances falling from about 12.9 billion to 11 billion tokens since April, with roughly 1.6 billion of that leaving exchanges in the past two weeks. Large holders accumulated about 470 million XRP worth $724 million in five days, according to analyst Ali Martinez, pushing whale balances from 12.37 billion to 12.80 billion tokens. Whales also pulled 301 million XRP from four exchanges on October 1. XRP is also 59% below its July 2025 high of $3.65 despite gaining 48% in the third quarter, its best Q3 in four years.
Over the past year the divergence across large tokens has been wide: bitcoin is down 29.7% year over year, ethereum 38.4% and XRP 49.6%, yet the 90-day recovery has been uneven too. Zcash leads with a 208% quarter and Chainlink has recovered all its 2026 losses.
"See you in Seoul for a special announcement," posted Ripple’s XRP Asia team on X ahead of today’s session.
Ripple released 1 billion XRP from escrow on October 1 across four transactions, part of its monthly unlock cycle. The venue usually returns unused tokens to escrow, so the full amount is unlikely to reach the market. Today at 2:15 p.m. Korea time, a 20-minute session at Ripple’s Seoul conference lists a "special announcement." The agenda names Tatsuya Kohrogi, Ripple’s ecosystem growth manager, and Sabrina Tachdjian, president of XRP Asia. It does not say what will be revealed. XRP trades near $1.51, up about 1%, with a market cap near $95.4 billion and daily volume up 19% to $3.67 billion. Its four-hour chart shows a symmetrical triangle with trendlines converging around today, resistance at $1.59 and support at $1.47.
Macro still sets the clock
The macro calendar dominates the rest of the month. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.34% and markets price roughly a 66% chance the Federal Reserve holds rates at its October 27-28 meeting. September personal consumption expenditures, the inflation gauge the Fed targets, arrives October 29, the morning after the decision ends. Real yields sit near 2.90%, a level analysts at Bitfinex say is the real constraint on bitcoin rather than crypto sentiment. Above 3.25% it would stop being an orderly headwind.
Bank forecasts have turned friendlier even as flows wobble. Standard Chartered maintains its $100,000 year-end target and Citi this week lifted its 12-month bitcoin target to $113,000, the most constructive call among major banks so far, alongside an ethereum target of $3,028. Analysts flag one risk: Binance holds about $4.35 billion in leveraged long bets below the price on a 30-day view, a pile that can amplify any sell-off. A two-day close above $87,360 with ETF buying resuming would favor the bulls. Losing $80,811 would put a zone near $74,000 in play, near the exponential moving averages and the long pile. For now the market is marking time and waiting for Seoul, the Fed and the PCE print.