Bitcoin recovered above $77,500 on Thursday morning, rising roughly 1.5% over 24 hours after buyers stepped in near the average cost basis of active investors on the network.
The coin touched a 24-hour low of $76,400 during late U.S. trading hours on Wednesday before rebounding to $77,600 in Asian morning hours Thursday. The bounce came within $50 of the $76,350 average cost basis of every active Bitcoin investor, a level that has absorbed sellers who bought in February and March all week, exiting at breakeven rather than at a loss, according to Bitfinex analysts. The defense of that level suggests the market has found a short-term floor, though whether it holds through the weekend depends heavily on Friday’s economic data.
The recovery coincided with a shift in interest-rate expectations. CME FedWatch data showed the probability of a September rate hike slid to 62% from 66% a day earlier, easing some of the pressure that had weighed on risk assets throughout the week. The decline followed Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s remarks that he would support holding rates steady if next week’s August CPI data shows continued progress toward the central bank’s 2% inflation target. Waller’s comments stood in contrast to the more hawkish tone set by other officials at Jackson Hole, and they were enough to shift the market’s center of gravity, if only slightly.
Risk-on sentiment returns, but cautiously
The broader crypto market moved in sync with Bitcoin’s recovery. XRP led the majors at $1.36, up almost 3%. BNB added almost 2% to just under $692, and Solana gained 2% to hold the $100 line. Tron rose about 1% to roughly 33 cents, while Hyperliquid’s HYPE was flat just above $82. Ether lagged the board at just under $2,400, weighed down by concerns about Layer 2 competition and continued outflows from staking protocols.
Over seven days, however, the picture is more subdued. Ether is down almost 4%, Tron about 3%, XRP roughly 3%, and Bitcoin about 1%. Only Zcash at $817 and HYPE are holding weekly gains among major tokens. The disconnect between the daily bounce and the weekly decline points to a market that is recovering but not yet convinced the worst is over.
The spot Bitcoin ETF market reflected similar indecision. These funds lost roughly $236 million on Monday, led by BlackRock’s IBIT, which shed $201 million on its own. The outflow reversed $217 million in inflows from the prior day, underscoring the whiplash nature of institutional positioning around the rate decision. For context, August was the strongest month for Bitcoin ETFs in 2026, with cumulative inflows exceeding $3.5 billion, but September has started on shaky footing. The ETF flows will be a key tell over the coming days: sustained outflows could signal that institutional investors are de-risking ahead of the Fed meeting, while a rebound would suggest Monday’s selling was a one-off.
Friday payrolls loom large
All eyes now turn to Friday’s non-farm payrolls report, which could decisively shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September 17 meeting. A weak jobs reading would likely push rate-hike odds below 50%, potentially sending Bitcoin toward $80,000, according to multiple trading desks. A strong number, by contrast, could reignite the hawkish trade and pressure crypto back toward $75,000 or lower.
The options market is positioned for volatility either way. Downside protection sits between $68,000 and $75,000, struck for the window from payrolls through the CPI release on September 11. Upside calls cluster around $85,000, a level Bitcoin has not traded above since its late-August peak. The skew in the options market suggests traders expect more downside risk than upside over the next two weeks, a defensive posture that reflects uncertainty about both the jobs data and the broader geopolitical environment.
Bitfinex analysts warned of a potential pullback, noting that September has historically been a bearish month for Bitcoin, with an average return of negative 2.95% since 2013. “With August’s momentum carrying into the month, we expect that any intra-month correction leaves the odds in favour of continuation higher on the higher timeframes,” they said in an email to CoinDesk. The comment captures the current mood: cautious in the short term, still bullish over the medium term, but unwilling to commit aggressively until the data clarifies.
Macro headwinds persist
Bitcoin held its ground even as the bond market moved sharply in the opposite direction. Renewed U.S. strikes near the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude oil above $93, revived the inflation trade, and dragged the ten-year Treasury yield to just above 4.8%, its highest close since 2023. The dollar index firmed to just under 100, adding another headwind for dollar-denominated risk assets.
Equities absorbed the bond selling with relative calm. The S&P 500 closed at 7,646, the Dow added roughly 277 points, and gold settled near $4,418. The divergence between surging yields and steady equities suggests markets are pricing in a world where inflation stays elevated but growth remains intact, a scenario that could eventually weigh on Bitcoin if real yields continue rising and make traditional bonds more attractive.
The stablecoin supply has also stalled, a potential warning sign for crypto liquidity. USDT dominance is approaching its own “death cross,” a technical pattern that, paradoxically, could be bullish for Bitcoin if it signals capital rotating out of stablecoins and back into risk assets. But that rotation has not yet materialized in a meaningful way, and until it does, the $76,000 to $78,000 range may define Bitcoin’s trading band for the rest of the week.
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