Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz faces growing uncertainty as President Donald Trump threatened to declare the strategic waterway US territory once the Iran war ends, while diplomatic efforts to broker a reopening deal remain stalled.
Speaking in New York on Friday, Trump said he would be declaring the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States after defeating Iran. The remark, delivered with a chuckle, immediately drew concern from allies and analysts who questioned whether it represented a shift in official US policy or rhetorical posturing. The Guardian reported that the seriousness of the remark and whether it signaled a new policy position remained unclear.
Competing Claims Paralyze the Waterway
The threat adds another layer of complexity to an already intractable dispute over who controls the strait, through which roughly one-fifth of globally traded oil normally flows. Iran has maintained its own restrictions on the waterway since the US-Israel war on Iran began in late February, while the US has imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports.
Trump has oscillated between claiming a deal to reopen the strait is close and threatening military escalation. On August 3, he asserted on Truth Social that negotiators had settled on parameters for a framework providing for the immediate, complete, and total reopening of the strait. Iran rejected those claims the same day, with officials cautioning that the strait would remain shut for as long as Washington persisted with what Tehran termed hostile actions.
Traffic through the strait remains severely degraded. Kpler data showed 12 commodity ships passing through on Wednesday, up from the previous two days but still a fraction of normal volumes. Hundreds of ships and an estimated 20,000 seafarers remain stuck inside the Gulf, unable to sail safely through either the US or Iranian-controlled portions of the waterway.
Diplomatic Window Narrows
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on August 6 that a deal with Oman on a new shipping route through Hormuz was very close, but stressed that reopening the waterway depended on the US meeting conditions including paying compensation to Iran. The latest signals of a forthcoming deal briefly drove oil prices lower and sent stocks higher, according to CNBC, before diplomatic momentum stalled again.
The uncertainty has had severe consequences for global energy markets. The IEA recently cut its 2026 oil demand forecast to a decline of 1.6 million barrels per day, citing the Hormuz closure and elevated prices as key factors weighing on consumption. Saudi Arabia has been forced to reduce oil exports and reroute shipments through the Red Sea via Yanbu, where Houthi attacks now threaten that alternative pathway as well.
With the US and Iran trading barbs over territorial control and neither side willing to concede, maritime insurers continue to flag the strait as operating under severe threat levels. Analysts warn that without a diplomatic breakthrough, the prolonged closure could push global energy markets into a deeper crisis as winter demand approaches.
Sources: The Guardian; Al Jazeera; CNBC; Reuters; CNN; Kpler
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