Russia’s spring-summer 2026 offensive has failed to achieve any operationally significant gains more than two and a half months after it began, according to a new assessment by the Institute for the Study of War published August 1.
The ISW report found that Russian forces advanced in just 37.85 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in July, smaller than the area of Manhattan, for an average of 1.22 square kilometers per day. The rate of advance remains remarkably low given the scale of Russia’s offensive effort.
The assessment represents a significant blow to Moscow’s war strategy. Russia launched its spring-summer offensive in mid-May with the stated aim of seizing remaining portions of the Donetsk region and creating buffer zones along the front line. Instead, Ukrainian forces have largely halted the advance.
The slow pace of Russian advances comes despite heavy casualties. Ukrainian military intelligence estimates that Russia has suffered over 1.45 million total combat losses since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022, with approximately 1,240 troops killed or wounded in the past 24 hours alone.
Analysts note that the offensive has consumed enormous quantities of Russian equipment and manpower without delivering the territorial gains Moscow needed to justify the costs. Russia has been forced to rely increasingly on infantry assaults supported by glide bombs rather than combined arms maneuvers.
The ISW findings suggest that Ukraine’s defensive strategy, bolstered by Western military aid and domestic drone production, continues to impose unsustainable costs on attacking Russian forces. The front lines have remained largely static despite months of intense combat.
Sources: ISW, Kyiv Post, Critical Threats
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