A New York Times investigation based on officials from two countries has revealed that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his intelligence services and military to work toward “destroying NATO and the EU from within” in 2026, with Moldova emerging as a central target in the Kremlin’s strategy.
The report, published on August 14 and based on accounts of a secret December 2025 meeting, says Moscow is pursuing this strategy on at least two fronts: testing NATO’s willingness to defend its members and destabilizing Moldova. US intelligence has assessed that Russia could seek to test NATO’s resolve as early as this fall through a limited attack on an alliance member, with scenarios ranging from cyberattacks and sabotage to operations involving unidentified armed groups or a limited incursion on the alliance’s eastern flank.
Moldova Emerges as Key Vulnerability
Western intelligence officials told the NYT that conquering Ukraine remains Putin’s top priority, while establishing control over Moldova is reportedly second. Moscow’s strategic goal, according to the officials, extends beyond political influence in Chisinau. Putin is still believed to want to seize southern Ukraine and create a land corridor connecting Russia to Moldova, a small country of about 2.4 million people wedged between Ukraine and NATO and EU territory.
Moldova also hosts the Russian-backed separatist region of Transnistria, where Russian troops have been stationed for decades. This gives Moscow an existing military foothold just across the border from Ukraine and within striking distance of Moldova’s capital, Chisinau. Control over Moldova would place the EU and NATO’s eastern flank under additional strain while providing another platform for pressure on Ukraine.
Pressure on Moldova is already intensifying through non-military means. In March, a Russian strike on a Ukrainian hydroelectric plant triggered an oil spill that polluted the Dniester River and disrupted water supplies in Moldova, including the country’s third-largest city. Russian drones later struck a high-voltage line in western Ukraine that supplies Moldova with a large share of its electricity, exposing how closely the country’s infrastructure is tied to the war next door.
Hybrid Operations Across the Eastern Flank
German Chief of Defense Gen. Carsten Breuer has warned that Russia is already conducting hybrid operations across NATO, particularly on the eastern flank. Poland and the Baltic states are now increasing security around dams, power plants, gas facilities and other critical infrastructure amid fears Russia could stage a false-flag attack using Ukrainian-made drones.
A Baltic intelligence official told Reuters that such an operation could be designed less to cause physical damage than to create political chaos inside NATO, forcing Washington and European capitals to debate whether Russia was responsible and whether the alliance should respond. The strategy targets the political cohesion of the alliance rather than its military capabilities.
The revelations underscore the escalating threat perception among Western intelligence agencies as Russia seeks to exploit political divisions, disinformation and economic vulnerabilities across Europe. The report comes at a time when the EU has been expanding legal mechanisms to seize Russian shadow fleet vessels, a move Putin has publicly threatened to respond to “in kind” against Western shipping in the Pacific.
Sources: The New York Times; Reuters; Kyiv Post; Deutsche Welle
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