After weeks of sustained Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers, airports and energy facilities, Saudi Arabia appears to be preparing for a renewed war against Yemen’s Iran-backed militia, raising the prospect of a dangerous new front in the broader Middle East conflict.
The escalation puts a second critical maritime chokepoint at risk just as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, potentially compounding global oil supply disruptions that have already pushed crude prices well above pre-war levels.
Since declaring a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia on July 20, the Houthis have attacked at least eight Saudi-linked vessels transiting the Red Sea and launched strikes on Saudi territory including the kingdom’s energy infrastructure. The campaign, which the group calls a “siege for a siege,” directly targets the pipeline route Saudi Arabia adopted after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz to most shipping in February.
On August 5, Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree claimed the group launched a ballistic missile at the Wafa, a Saudi oil tanker located near Yanbu, the kingdom’s Red Sea energy export hub about 1,000 kilometers north of Yemen. Yanbu handles roughly four million barrels per day of crude exports and has become Saudi Arabia’s primary outlet for oil since the Hormuz closure choked off Gulf shipping.
On August 24, the Houthis struck again, claiming a missile attack on another Saudi tanker in the northern Red Sea near Yanbu. The UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre reported hearing a loud explosion in close proximity to a vessel in the Gulf of Aden on the same day, though Saudi authorities did not confirm the targeting of either ship.
Refinery Shutdown Adds Pressure
The attacks have already inflicted serious damage on Saudi energy infrastructure. On July 25, the Houthis claimed strikes on energy facilities at both Yanbu and Jazan, the latter a 400,000-barrel-per-day oil refinery on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast. Saudi Aramco shut down the Jazan facility following the attack, with repairs tentatively expected to take weeks.
Two days later, on July 27, Saudi Arabia’s eastern energy facilities including Abqaiq, the world’s largest crude oil stabilization plant, were targeted by drones. Abqaiq was seen on fire in satellite imagery. Riyadh blamed Iran-backed militias operating from Iraq, while the Houthis claimed responsibility.
The Jazan shutdown is particularly significant because finished fuel products are less flexible than crude oil. While crude can be rerouted, stored on tankers, or redirected through alternative ports, gasoline, diesel and jet fuel must be produced at operating refineries. The loss of 400,000 barrels per day of refining capacity tightens supplies in a market already strained by months of conflict.
A Second Chokepoint Under Threat
The Houthi campaign threatens the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the narrow gateway connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. Roughly a dozen oil tankers were sailing near Bab al-Mandeb as of late August, following an uptick in traffic as shippers bet on new US-Iran diplomacy. But repeated attacks are forcing carriers to reconsider.
Lloyd’s List warned that the Houthi blockade raises questions about the viability of the Yanbu route, which Saudi Arabia has leaned on heavily since the Hormuz crisis began. Container lines Maersk, CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd have already rerouted ships around the Cape of Good Hope, adding roughly 3,800 nautical miles and 10 to 14 days per voyage.
The Houthis justify their blockade by citing Saudi Arabia’s longstanding restrictions on maritime and air travel to Yemen, imposed at the request of the internationally recognized government to intercept Iranian weapons shipments. But analysts note that during the group’s earlier blockade of Israeli-linked shipping during the Gaza war, many vessels with no connection to Israel were targeted, disrupting global trade broadly.
Riyadh Weighs Response
Saudi officials have so far avoided confirming details of the attacks, a pattern consistent with the kingdom’s approach during the earlier Yemen conflict. But Bloomberg and other outlets report that Riyadh is evaluating military options against the Houthis, a decision that could significantly expand the war.
A renewed Saudi military campaign against the Houthis would face the same challenges that plagued the kingdom’s earlier intervention in Yemen: a resilient guerrilla force with advanced missile and drone capabilities, deep support from Iran, and control of densely populated urban areas including the capital Sanaa. Previous Saudi-led coalition operations from 2015 to 2022 failed to dislodge the Houthis despite sustained aerial bombardment and ground operations.
The potential escalation comes at a delicate diplomatic moment. Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani met with Iranian officials in Tehran on August 27 to discuss the Strait of Hormuz, part of a wave of mediation efforts that also included Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir. Iran has indicated it is preparing conditions to reopen the strait, though no agreement has been reached.
For global oil markets, the convergence of crises at both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb represents a worst-case scenario. Brent crude has traded above $83 per barrel through August, well above the $72.44 level that prevailed before the war began on February 28. Any further disruption to the Yanbu route or a full Houthi closure of Bab al-Mandeb would remove one of the few remaining pathways for Middle East oil to reach global markets.
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