The Sudanese Armed Forces have made significant territorial gains in North Kordofan state while the Rapid Support Forces face a deepening wave of defections, shifting the battlefield dynamics in Africa deadliest ongoing conflict. A senior RSF field commander and 300 fighters under his command recently surrendered to army units, marking the latest in a string of high-profile departures that are weakening the paramilitary group cohesion and operational capacity.
The defections accelerated in mid-August when the RSF parallel government governor for the Kordofan region renounced the group and left his post. He was followed by Field Commander Bashara al-Huweira in North Kordofan and Commander Ali Rizkallah, known as al-Safana, in a chain of departures that analysts say is eroding the RSF chain of command. In August alone, more than 300 RSF fighters surrendered to the Sudanese army in Northern State, joining a growing list of defectors responding to amnesty calls issued by military chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan since the war erupted in April 2023.
SAF Consolidates Central Sudan
The army has used the defections to consolidate its hold over central Sudan, where it retook Khartoum in 2025 and has since worked to secure supply lines connecting the capital to el Obeid, the North Kordofan capital. The SAF restored a critical Khartoum-el Obeid road link in late July and repelled a major RSF attack on Jabrat al Sheikh, approximately 105 miles north of el Obeid, where the RSF deployed over 250 combat vehicles on August 13.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War described the battlefield as showing signs of a fundamental shift. Al Jazeera analysis from August 26 linked the growing defections to battlefield developments, internal RSF problems, social and tribal dynamics, and pressure from the army advances disrupting RSF supply lines. The pattern mirrors earlier defections, including senior RSF commander Al-Nour Ahmed Adam, known as Al-Nour Guba, who left the paramilitary in April after internal friction over command appointments in North Darfur.
RSF Counter-Offensive in Blue Nile
However, the RSF has not been entirely on the defensive. The paramilitary group launched a cross-border offensive from Ethiopian territory into Blue Nile state in early August, recapturing the border town of Kurmuk on August 13 after heavy drone strikes forced the SAF to withdraw from key defensive positions. The RSF also seized the town of Geisan and advanced along secondary roads toward the Blue Nile highway, capturing the villages of Agaro and Amora.
The RSF Blue Nile offensive represents a strategic effort to distract the SAF from consolidating gains in central Sudan. The SAF has redeployed forces from the main central front lines to reinforce Blue Nile positions, a pattern that previously occurred when the RSF first captured Kurmuk in March. Blue Nile state is the agricultural heartland of Sudan and home to one of the country largest dams, making it a high-value target for both sides.
Rainy Season Complicates Operations
Sudan rainy season, which typically lasts through October, is complicating military operations on both sides. Secondary roads crucial for RSF supply lines become impassable during the wet months, potentially limiting further advances in central and eastern Sudan. Analysts at the Critical Threats project noted that SAF defensive maneuvers combined with seasonal conditions may slow RSF operations, though the paramilitary group use of Ethiopian territory as a staging hub provides an alternative supply route.
The RSF has responded to its manpower challenges by launching a recruitment campaign among tribes in western Sudan, according to Sudan Tribune. But the growing number of defections, combined with battlefield setbacks in central Sudan, raises questions about the group long-term sustainability. The RSF parallel government for Kordofan lost its governor, and at least one senior field commander defected with hundreds of fighters in a single wave.
The Sudanese citizen did not deserve this war, was powerless in the face of it, and their return to the embrace of the homeland was the right course of action, defecting commanders said in public statements.
Sudan civil war, now in its third year, has killed at least 58,000 people according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, with broader estimates running significantly higher. The International Rescue Committee has documented famine conditions in El Fasher and Kadugli, while millions of displaced civilians face acute food insecurity across Darfur and Kordofan. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification has confirmed Phase 5 famine, the most severe level, in both cities.
The battlefield shifts carry political implications as well. With both sides locked in a grinding conflict that shows no sign of diplomatic resolution, the balance of military power will shape any eventual negotiating framework. The SAF growing control of central Sudan and the RSF increasing internal fractures may push the paramilitary toward a more defensive posture, though its ability to project force into Blue Nile from Ethiopian territory demonstrates it retains significant offensive capability.
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