Minnesota’s Democratic-Farmer-Labor primary for U.S. Senate reaches its climax on August 11, with a contest between Rep. Angie Craig and Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan that has become a defining referendum on how Democrats should respond to President Trump’s immigration enforcement agenda.
The race to replace retiring Senator Tina Smith has drawn national attention as a barometer for the Democratic Party’s direction ahead of the 2026 midterms. It pits Craig, a four-term centrist who flipped a swing district in 2018, against Flanagan, the state’s progressive second-in-command who has been endorsed by Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders.
Immigration has dominated the campaign since ICE agents descended on Minneapolis in what the Trump administration dubbed ‘Operation Metro Surge.’ The federal enforcement actions sparked protests, including confrontations outside a federal office complex near the Minneapolis airport where two protesters were fatally shot by federal agents before Trump pulled back under pressure.
Craig’s campaign has been defined by her vote for the Laken Riley Act, the first bill signed by Trump in his second term, which mandates detention of undocumented immigrants accused of certain crimes. She has since expressed regret for the vote, telling supporters that any vote giving Trump additional ICE authority was a mistake. Her opponents argue the damage is done.
A June PPP poll showed Flanagan leading Craig 43 percent to 36 percent, with 21 percent undecided. However, prediction markets have narrowed recently, with Craig’s implied win probability climbing from 16 percent to 26 percent in the final days before the primary. Both campaigns have reported tens of millions in spending, with dark money groups pouring funds into attack ads on both sides.
Flanagan has positioned herself as the progressive alternative, calling for Medicare for All, abolishing ICE, ending military aid to Israel, and breaking up Big Tech. She has hammered Craig relentlessly over the Laken Riley Act vote, arguing it set the stage for the aggressive federal immigration enforcement actions that shocked Minnesota communities this winter.
The race also reflects broader tensions within the Democratic Party over electability versus ideological purity. Craig supporters point to her track record of winning in a purple district as evidence she can hold the seat in November, while Flanagan backers argue that only an unapologetic progressive can energize the base in a state where Trump’s immigration crackdown has galvanized voters.
With control of the Senate at stake, the Minnesota primary carries enormous implications. National Republicans view the seat as a potential pickup opportunity, and the winner will face either former state senator David Hann or political newcomer Royce White in the general election.
AP News – Trump immigration crackdown looms over Minnesota primary | Star Tribune – Dark money flooding MN Senate primary
Sources: Associated Press, Star Tribune, PPP Polling, Prediction Markets
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