OFFICIAL TRUMP dropped 6 percent in a liquidity cascade that combined two pressures at once: 10 million tokens moving onto Binance and OKX, and a fresh public denial from Donald Trump himself, who distanced his business from the coin that carries his name. The token trades near $2.27, down about 96 percent from its January 2025 peak of $73.43, with a market cap of roughly $619 million.
The on-chain side is well documented by now. Lookonchain tracked the team wallet moving 11.01 million TRUMP tokens, worth about $26.65 million, to an unlabeled external wallet on September 1. Gate News reported that the same wallet has moved over $150 million worth of TRUMP-linked tokens to exchanges since April. None of those transfers was explained publicly, and the receiving addresses are not labeled, which leaves open the question of whether the tokens are headed to market or into custody.
What makes this week different is the second pressure. Trump’s denial of involvement, reported alongside the transfers, removed the one argument holders had leaned on: that proximity to the president gave the token durable value. The market read it as a liquidity event, and the price fell through levels that had held through earlier team moves. Memecoins live on attention, and a denial from the namesake is the kind of attention that sells.
The unlock calendar keeps ticking
The bigger supply test is scheduled rather than on-chain. A vesting release of 28.7 million TRUMP tokens, 2.9 percent of circulating supply and earmarked for project insiders, hits on September 18. It is the 19th of 34 planned unlocks running through December 2027.
The release does not add to circulating supply immediately, but it lands weeks after the latest selloff and on top of a team wallet that keeps feeding exchanges. Analysts watching the token suggest tracking exchange inflows in the days around the unlock: a spike above $30 million in deposits would signal selling pressure running hotter than the market can absorb, while a drop below $2 in the following month would confirm that investor interest is fading rather than stabilizing.
How the team sells without selling
The August selloff showed the method. Wallets associated with the project pulled $3.39 million in USDC during a 10-hour window on Solana, not by dumping tokens outright but by seeding liquidity positions that automatically converted TRUMP into stablecoins as other traders bought. The resulting USDC was then withdrawn. Roughly 646,000 tokens moved to OKX in two transfers, with a separate 2.62 million token transfer worth about $6.2 million on top.
Exchange deposits do not automatically mean tokens get sold. Traders sometimes move assets for custody or trading setup. But the timing matters: these transfers landed just as the token cooled from its highs, and they gave market watchers another reason to treat the rally with caution. The rally in question had carried TRUMP up 61 percent in a single week, from around $1.40, before the team activity interrupted it.
Political scrutiny does not go away
Senators Elizabeth Warren, Adam Schiff and Richard Blumenthal have all scrutinized the project, and every financial move the team makes now gets read through both a market lens and a political one. The SEC has increased attention on crypto assets that may exhibit securities-like characteristics, and memecoins with opaque wallet activity sit squarely in that category.
There is a stark divide among holders underneath the price action. Early buyers who got in near the January 2025 peak are down more than 96 percent. Traders who caught the recent rally are sitting on gains that the past week has started to erode. The token still trades above its 20-day, 50-day and 100-day moving averages, with resistance at the 200-day average near $2.71.
Watch the volume of TRUMP tokens hitting exchanges in the days before and after the unlock. A spike above $30 million post-unlock would probably mean selling pressure is running hotter than the market can handle.
That guidance, from analysts at The Currency Analytics, frames the next two weeks. The token’s fate now rests less on Trump’s politics than on arithmetic: how many unlocked tokens reach exchanges, and whether there is enough demand to absorb them at current prices.
For a coin that once traded at $73, the arithmetic looks heavy. Each unlock adds supply into a market where the team itself has been a persistent seller since April, and where the most famous holder has just said publicly that the coin is not his. The September 18 release will show whether the market has priced any of that in, or whether another leg down is waiting.
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