Russia’s grain export pipeline through the Azov and Black Seas has ground to a near-complete halt after Ukrainian drone strikes forced the shutdown of all three major grain terminals at Novorossiysk, Russia’s largest Black Sea port.
The shutdowns, confirmed by The Moscow Times on August 17, mean that roughly 25 million tons of normally exported grain have nowhere to go. A grain terminal in Taman was shut down in late July, and navigation through the Kerch Strait was suspended weeks earlier, blocking Azov Sea harbors through which about 40% of Russia’s exported grain passes.
Currently, only the port of Tuapse, the smallest deep-water terminal in the region, remains active. Agricultural exports generate approximately $15 billion in foreign revenue annually for Russia, making the paralysis a significant blow to Moscow’s war economy.
Farmers Face ‘Catastrophic Losses’
Arkady Zlochevsky, president of the Russian Grain Union, warned that agricultural producers are facing an economic disaster with no buyers for the 2026 harvest of nearly 140 million tons. “Storerooms are filling up every day, while demand has stopped, and exporters have practically stopped purchasing grain,” Zlochevsky said.
Domestic grain prices have plummeted to 12,000 rubles per ton for fourth-class wheat, down from 15,000 rubles last year. “This is a catastrophic level, colossal losses,” he added. The August-to-December period represents Russia’s peak export season, making the timing of the shutdowns particularly damaging.
Wider Impact on War Economy
Andrey Sizov, head of the SovEcon research firm, warned that expecting to export the delayed volumes later is overly optimistic given winter storms, freezing rivers, and ice on the Sea of Azov. He said many farmers will not survive the season and may lack funds for winter planting.
“There is nowhere to get money, credit resources are unavailable, no one provides advances, and because of this, we have to trade at such losses. If we do not receive sufficient funding, winter sowing will be a failure,” Zlochevsky stressed. During the previous season, ports in the Azov-Black Sea basin handled 88% of all sea shipments of Russian grain, amounting to 46.3 million tons.
The port disruptions are part of Ukraine’s broader campaign to undermine Russia’s economic infrastructure. In a separate strike campaign, Ukraine has targeted roughly a dozen Wildberries logistics sites since mid-July, while also hitting oil refineries and energy facilities deep inside Russia. The combined pressure on Russia’s export earnings and domestic supply chains is expected to strain the Kremlin’s budget as the war drags into its fifth year.
Sources: United24 Media; The Moscow Times; SovEcon; Reuters
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