The European Union’s free trade agreement with South America’s Mercosur bloc, negotiated for 26 years, is facing a ratification crisis that could still sink it, a fresh analysis published in Brussels on Friday warns. The deal, concluded with fanfare in December 2024, has never been further from entering into force.
In a first for the agreement, it was put to a vote in the Council of the EU, where it only just scraped through. France, Ireland, Poland, Hungary and Austria voted against, despite last-minute efforts by the European Commission to add import safeguards at French insistence.
The European Parliament then asked the European Court of Justice for an opinion on the pact’s compatibility with EU treaties, a step critics called a delaying tactic. MEPs voted in January 2026 to refer the agreement to the court, which is expected to confirm its conformity with the treaties, as it has done for EU agreements with Canada, Chile, Mexico and Vietnam.
Even a favourable ruling may not be enough. The ratification vote is expected early next year, when it will coincide with heated negotiations over the EU’s next multiannual budget and farmers’ protests over planned cuts to agricultural subsidies. MEPs wary of powerful farming constituencies may see rejecting Mercosur as a low-cost way to show they care, the analysis argues.
The debate will also unfold against the backdrop of elections in 2027 in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Poland, where Mercosur and trade liberalisation are set to become campaign issues. Many MEPs could be inclined, or instructed, to vote along national rather than party lines.
Confidence in the pact has been further dented in recent weeks. The EU’s ban on Brazilian meat over uncontrolled antibiotic use has undermined Brazil’s claims to meet European health and safety standards. Brazil’s decision last week to ban the production and import of foie gras on ethical grounds infuriated France. And the four Mercosur countries still cannot agree on how to divide quotas for beef, poultry and sugar, a deadlock that confirms the fears of European farm groups.
Analysts say the only realistic path to saving the agreement runs through Brasilia: a transparent and verifiable food traceability system compliant with EU standards, and a coherent quota arrangement among Mercosur members. Otherwise, the political cost of voting may persuade MEPs to keep postponing a decision indefinitely, leaving the fate of one of the EU’s most consequential trade agreements unresolved, just as the bloc seeks to project economic strength against the United States and China.
Sources: Euractiv analysis, Reuters, European Parliament
Author: Europe Desk
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