Transits through the Strait of Hormuz rose more than 30% last week, with the increase mostly led by tankers and gas carriers, but the vital oil chokepoint remains a shadow of its former self six months after the US-Iran war effectively shut it down.
There were 114 transits between August 17 and Sunday, compared to the previous week, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data. At least 42 westbound transits moved into the strait, up from 29 the week prior. Despite the uptick, traffic remains a tiny fraction of the roughly 60 vessels that passed through daily before the conflict began in late February.
Industry Still Operating Under Crisis Conditions
The industry is still operating under crisis conditions rather than anything approaching a return to normality, said Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List, during a Thursday webinar.
Despite President Donald Trump repeatedly declaring the strait is open, Iran continues to fire at commercial ships while the US maintains its naval blockade. On Thursday, the MT Al Salam II was hit while transiting the strait, according to the Combined Maritime Forces Joint Maritime Information Center. On Monday, the MT Metro Venetian was struck off the coast of Ash Shishah, Oman, the International Maritime Organization reported.
At least 19 seafarers have died from both US and Iranian attacks on commercial ships since the conflict began. An estimated 150 vessels remain trapped in the Persian Gulf, unable to leave or enter safely. More ships continue to have their automatic identification system tracking transponders switched off, making it harder to track the full picture of vessels actually crossing the strait.
A New Relay System Emerges
The logistics model that has emerged since the war began is markedly more tanker-intensive. Oil and gas are being moved through a relay system involving shuttle tankers, offshore ship-to-ship transfers, and a pool of vessels and crew willing to transit the strait.
This approach concentrates risk on a relatively small number of ships and crews repeatedly operating in high-threat waters. National oil companies are responding by securing their own shipping capacity rather than relying on third-party owners. Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. recently disclosed acquisitions of six very large crude carriers and five very large gas carriers worth a combined $1.3 billion, giving it direct control over its export logistics.
Iranian-linked transits were up 18.5% last week, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence. United Against A Nuclear Iran tracked 29.99 million barrels of Iranian exported oil in July, demonstrating that Tehran has maintained a steady flow of crude despite the wider disruption.
| Metric | Current | Pre-War Normal | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daily Transits | ~16 | ~60 | -73% |
| Daily DWT Throughput | 103K | 10.3M | -99% |
| Vessels Waiting | 150 | 0 | New risk |
| War Risk Premium | 10% | 0.15% | +66.7x |
| VLCC Spot Rate (WS) | 250 | 50 | +400% |
Mines Cleared But Skepticism Persists
In a potentially significant development, Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of US Central Command, said Thursday that the US has cleared all mines from the strait international shipping lanes. The military said it assisted nearly 1,500 commercial vessels over the past several months.
However, the shipping industry remains skeptical. Lloyd’s List reported that the declaration does not address the IRGC ongoing enforcement of transit rules and its published blacklist of 45 vessels accused of breaching unilateral regulations. Iran has warned that ships conducting ship-to-ship transfers with blacklisted vessels could themselves face detention or confiscation.
Iran also published new fines for vessels that transit without IRGC coordination. The country parliament has separately approved legislation allowing the state to charge fees for navigation, environmental, fueling, insurance, and safety services on vessels passing through, turning the strait into a potential revenue stream for Tehran.
Record Earnings Amid Record Risk
The disruption has sent tanker rates soaring to unprecedented levels. Very large crude carrier earnings have surged to record highs as vessel availability becomes constrained by the longer trading patterns, additional waiting time, and repositioning voyages that absorb capacity.
The tanker market is effectively bifurcated, with operators in the Persian Gulf region paying massive premiums while rates elsewhere remain more moderate. Rising wage premiums, specialist contracts, and dedicated risk crews suggest that access to qualified seafarers willing to operate in conflict zones may become a major bottleneck in the coming months.
The September 6 OPEC+ meeting looms as a key date for oil markets. If diplomatic progress on Hormuz continues, more capacity could return to the market. But for shipping operators, the fundamental reality remains unchanged: the world most important oil chokepoint is still a war zone, and no amount of traffic data can change that.
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