Venezuela is seriously considering leaving OPEC, the oil cartel it helped found more than six decades ago, according to people familiar with the matter, delivering a fresh blow to an organization already battered by the UAE earlier departure and rising dissent from Iraq.
The idea of an exit has been discussed in conversations between Caracas and Washington officials, though no final decision has been made, Bloomberg reported citing unnamed sources. The move would underscore the sweeping political realignment in Venezuela since the US took control of the nation’s oil sales earlier this year.
OPEC influence over global crude markets is facing renewed pressure as the founding member weighs its departure, just four months after the UAE announced it would leave to make use of expanded production capacity unfettered by the group output quota system.
A Cartel Under Siege From Within
The potential Venezuelan exit comes at a moment when OPEC is already struggling to maintain cohesion. Iraq, the group second-largest producer, warned in June it could withdraw if denied a higher output limit. Angola left in 2024. The cumulative effect is raising fundamental questions about the cartel future.
The very cohesion and credibility of OPEC could be at stake, said Ali Al Riyami, former director general of oil and gas marketing in Oman energy ministry. The critical question is whether this marks the beginning of a broader wave of withdrawals.
If Venezuela followed the UAE out of OPEC, the two departures would remove more than 5 million barrels per day of production capacity from the organization, roughly 17% of the capacity held by core members at the start of 2026. Venezuela also holds some of the world largest proven oil reserves, which could support substantially higher production over time with increased investment.
Limited Near-Term Supply Impact
Analysts note that Venezuela departure would have limited immediate effects on global oil supply. Years of sanctions and economic mismanagement have gutted the country petroleum industry. Venezuela pumped 1.16 million barrels per day in July, less than half the output it produced a decade ago. The nation is currently exempt from OPEC production quotas.
However, the longer-term implications could be more significant. With the US negotiating deals to take a large stake in Venezuelan oil fields and Chevron reportedly in talks to expand production at its Petropiar joint venture, Caracas could eventually become a far larger player in global supply.
OPEC Waning Influence
The broader picture is one of an organization losing its grip. OPEC and its partners have already seen their share of global supply challenged by surging production from the US, Brazil and Guyana. The Iran war has forced Saudi Arabia and Gulf producers to curb output, while Russia influence has weakened as its exports suffer from the Ukraine conflict.
For OPEC, it is another sign of the group influence on the oil market waning, which could result in more volatile oil prices, said Hamad Hussain, a climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics.
Henning Gloystein, managing director for energy and resources at Eurasia Group, put it more bluntly: OPEC is fighting what is starting to look like a losing battle against significant changes in the geopolitics of oil. He noted that declining membership and production volumes are weakening the group as the US gains importance on the supply side and China plays a larger role in global demand.
What Comes Next
OPEC next regular meeting is scheduled for September 6, where the baseline scenario remains a pause in quota increases through the end of the year. But the group faces a more difficult balancing act if the Iran conflict is resolved and Persian Gulf supplies return fully.
The International Energy Agency and other forecasters have projected a global oil surplus under such a scenario, potentially increasing pressure on remaining members to cut production. Saudi Arabia, as OPEC de facto leader, could face the greatest burden of any future supply management effort.
For now, Venezuela government has not commented publicly on the deliberations. The White House also had no immediate comment. But the mere fact that a founding member is openly weighing departure marks a historic moment for an organization that dominated oil markets for generations.
discussion