More than 80 percent of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz over the past two weeks have used a UN-authorized Omani route, according to shipping analytics firm Kpler, signaling a significant erosion of Iran’s control over the strategic waterway.
The data, reported by CNN, shows that ships are increasingly relying on US naval protection to bypass Iran’s preferred shipping lane along the strait’s northern coast. Iran has responded by attacking dozens of vessels attempting to use the Omani passage, yet the shift in traffic patterns continues.
Iran Partially Lost Control
“It increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait,” Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, told CNN. The finding marks a turning point in the months-long standoff over the waterway, through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil once passed before the US-Iran war began.
Despite the growing use of the Omani route, overall traffic through the strait remains severely depressed. Reuters reported on Monday that only six commodity ships crossed the strait, well below the 10-day average of 11 ships. No very large crude carriers or liquefied natural gas tankers were among the crossings, and some vessels may have been missed because their transponders were switched off.
The Associated Press separately reported that confirmed crossings had fallen 19.5 percent last week to 95 vessels, with just three crossing on Sunday. Those Sunday vessels used the Iranian-designated route, with no crossings through the Omani routes that day, though weekly trends clearly favor the Omani passage.
Diplomatic Standoff Continues
The shipping data was published as diplomatic efforts remained stalled. President Trump said Tuesday there were no talks or conversations underway with Iran and none scheduled, contradicting his envoy Jared Kushner who had described discussions as “very positive and active.”
Trump also posted a map on Truth Social portraying the Strait of Hormuz as “NEW U.S. Territory,” a claim Iran’s security chief mocked as “7,000 miles from reality.” Iran has said it will not reopen the strait until Washington fulfills commitments Tehran says were made in a June memorandum of understanding.
“Should the US go too far, Iran will defend itself at any price, go beyond the region, and hit Europe too,” one Iranian official told the Financial Times.
The disruption has also rippled through the wider region. Reuters reported 19 commodity vessels passed through the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint on Monday, below the 10-day average of 26 and Sunday’s 33 crossings. Brent crude has rallied for four consecutive days, topping $91 per barrel, as Gulf output remains 8.3 million barrels per day below pre-war levels. The convergence of Iran’s weakening grip on Hormuz with sustained price pressure underscores the conflict’s lasting toll on global energy markets.
Sources: CNN; Reuters; Associated Press; Kpler shipping data; Financial Times
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