The Panama Canal will cut daily vessel transits to as few as 32 ships by mid-September as a deepening El Nino drought starves the waterway of rainfall needed to keep its locks operating at full capacity.
The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) issued Advisory 29-2026 on Thursday, announcing that effective September 4, total daily transits will drop from 36 to 34 vessels. Neopanamax locks will offer just nine slots per day, down from previous levels, while Panamax locks will have 25. On September 15, Panamax capacity falls further to 23 slots, bringing total daily passages to 32.
Precipitation in the canal watershed between May and August fell 34 percent below the historical average, while water inflows dropped 44 percent below normal levels, the ACP said. Despite the onset of the rainy season, the authority warned that the 2026/27 El Nino weather phenomenon is expected to cause additional deficits through the remainder of the wet season.
Draft Restrictions Postponed
To soften the immediate blow to cargo capacity, the ACP postponed planned draft restrictions for Neopanamax locks. A cut to 48 feet, originally scheduled for August 26, will now take effect September 2. A secondary reduction to 47.5 feet has been pushed from September 3 to October 1.
The authority also restructured its daily auction system, grouping container ships, vehicle carriers, roll-on/roll-off vessels, and refrigerated ships into a single trade category. Fully laden Neopanamax container ships with the highest capacity will receive preference, with customer ranking used to break ties.
Preparing for a Longer Crisis
ACP Administrator Ricaurte Vasquez said the authority has learned from the severe droughts of 2023 and 2024. The experience of 2023 and 2024 has prepared us well for what we know and has given us the discipline to deal with what we do not know, Vasquez said. The canal does not improvise.
The ACP warned that conditions could deteriorate further during the January to April 2027 dry period, when water reserves typically hit their lowest levels. A confirmed reservation now serves as the only mechanism guaranteeing a transit date, with unreserved vessels facing extended wait times. Canceled reservations under the temporary measures will not incur penalties.
The restrictions carry implications for global trade routes, particularly for container shipping between Asia and the US East Coast and for bulk commodity flows from South American grain and mineral exporters. Shipping analysts have noted that extended waits at the canal could push some carriers to reroute via the Suez Canal or around the Cape of Good Hope, adding days to transit times and raising costs.
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