The memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran that established a fragile ceasefire and set a 60-day window for negotiating a permanent end to the war expired Monday with no deal reached and no clear plan for extending the truce.
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi told state media that Tehran has made no decision on resuming negotiations with Washington, saying messages are being exchanged through mediators but that this “does not mean negotiations at all.” He accused the United States of violating the MOU and said clashes had resumed. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump threatened military action against Oman, a longtime US ally, if its parallel negotiations with Iran over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz interfere with American efforts.
“If Oman gets in the way, we’ll bomb the s— out of them,” Trump said in an interview with Fox News on Monday. The threat alarmed Gulf allies and diplomats who noted that Oman has served as a key backchannel between Washington and Tehran throughout the conflict. Oman and Iran have been working to designate a new route for the safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively closed to international tankers since the war began in February.
What the MOU Meant
The June 17 memorandum of understanding, signed by Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, established a two-phase framework: an immediate cessation of hostilities followed by 60 days of negotiations to reach a comprehensive settlement. The deal was brokered largely through Pakistan and Oman after a previous two-week ceasefire collapsed in April. Under its terms, both sides agreed to halt military operations while diplomats worked toward resolving the core disputes over Iran’s nuclear program, control of the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and withdrawal of US forces from the region.
Neither side achieved its stated objectives during the 60-day window. Washington demanded Iran abandon its nuclear enrichment program and fully reopen the Strait to commercial traffic. Tehran insisted on guarantees against future attacks, withdrawal of US combat forces, lifting of all sanctions, and reparations for war damage. Talks held through intermediaries in Islamabad never progressed to direct negotiations between senior officials.
Iran Prepares for Escalation
According to reporting by the Wall Street Journal, Iran’s hardline leaders have been preparing for a larger conflict rather than placing faith in the MOU. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was given expanded control over the regular army during the ceasefire period, while Iran ramped up missile and drone production and sent military advisers to allied militias in Yemen, Lebanon, and Iraq. Intelligence sources told the Journal that the IRGC used the calm created by the MOU to lay the groundwork for stepping up attacks if negotiations failed.
Iran’s chief negotiator and parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, declared that the United States and Israel have “failed to achieve” any of the objectives they set at the start of the war. “I declare with all my heart that we won this war,” he said, without specifying which goals he believed had not been met. The stated US objectives included complete Iranian surrender, regime change, ending Iran’s nuclear program, and cutting off support for proxy groups like Hezbollah.
Global Oil Markets on Edge
The expiration adds fresh uncertainty to global oil markets, which have already been roiled by the near-total collapse of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude surged to $89.40 a barrel earlier this week as transit through the waterway, which normally carries roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade, fell to zero. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Newsmax last week that the administration would roll out an “economic isolation” campaign against Tehran if no deal is reached.
Frustration with Washington is growing among US allies in the Persian Gulf, where officials increasingly question Trump’s ability to manage the diplomacy required for peace. A mutual defense agreement signed last week by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan was described by a senior European official as a “signal to the US” that three powerful Sunni states are diversifying their security partnerships beyond Washington.
Sources: AP News; CNBC; Wall Street Journal; NDTV; Al Jazeera; Washington Post; Just Security
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