European Council President António Costa kicked off a high-stakes Tour des Capitales on Tuesday, meeting Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico in Bratislava as the opening move in negotiations over the EU’s next long-term budget.
The Multiannual Financial Framework for 2028-2034, currently estimated at around 2 trillion euros, is the largest and most contested financial package the EU has ever negotiated. Costa has described reaching a political deal by the end of 2026 as the year’s overriding priority, warning that failure would paralyse EU financing for farmers, regions, students and research programmes across the bloc.
Fico Draws Red Lines on Cohesion Funds
By deliberately choosing Slovakia as his first stop, Costa confronted one of the toughest voices in the so-called “Friends of Cohesion” camp. Slovakia is a net beneficiary that depends heavily on traditional EU structural and cohesion funds. Under the Commission’s proposed National and Regional Partnership Plan, Slovakia would receive a guaranteed 19.9 billion euro allocation for 2028-2034 to support poorer regions and direct payments to farmers.
Fico insisted this envelope must remain substantial and even argued for extra resources for eastern member states bordering Ukraine, whose security costs have risen sharply since Russia’s full-scale invasion. He also rejected the planned EU-wide Competitiveness Fund, which would distribute money competitively without national quotas, warning it risks channelling funds exclusively to the richest western states.
“Subsidies for regions and farmers must be preserved, and any drastic cuts are unacceptable,” Fico said at a joint press conference after the meeting. He also diverged from Brussels on several other issues, favouring “friendly competition” with China rather than barriers, opposing political shortcuts for Ukraine’s EU accession path over Western Balkan candidates, and blaming the Emissions Trading System for high energy prices.
Two Opposing Camps Emerge
The budget battle has crystallised into two sharply opposed blocs that will define the months of negotiations ahead. Frugal states, led by the Netherlands, Austria, Sweden, Denmark and Finland, want to limit the overall budget size and redirect spending toward defence, innovation and strategic autonomy. They argue the EU must prioritise competitiveness and security amid rising geopolitical threats from both Russia and China.
On the other side, cohesion-dependent nations including Poland, Hungary, Romania and the Baltic states insist on preserving structural funds that support poorer regions. These countries argue that cutting cohesion spending would undermine EU solidarity precisely when eastern members face amplified security risks from the war in Ukraine and hybrid threats on their borders.
The Franco-German axis remains a critical swing factor. Berlin and Paris have not yet fully aligned on their positions, and the outcome of their bilateral discussions could determine whether the frugal bloc or the cohesion camp ultimately prevails on key dividing lines.
Baltic Stops and the Road Ahead
After Bratislava, Costa met Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal in Tallinn on Tuesday and travels to Riga on Wednesday to meet Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kullbergs. The first week of the tour continues through Lithuania and the Czech Republic before expanding to cover most EU leaders by September 17.
Sweden has been deliberately skipped for now due to its parliamentary election, and Ireland, which holds the rotating Council presidency in the second half of 2026, is expected to table a revised draft before the October European Council. Costa will then attempt to corral all 27 leaders toward a political agreement.
Timeline Pressure Mounts
Previous MFF negotiations have routinely stretched well beyond initial deadlines. The current 2021-2027 budget was not finalised until December 2020 after months of bitter haggling between member states. Costa’s tour is intended to map red lines early, identify potential trade-offs and maintain political momentum before electoral calendars in several member states risk freezing or further polarising the negotiations.
National elections scheduled for 2027 in France and Germany, along with several other key states, could complicate the process significantly. Without a deal, a provisional regime would automatically kick in: only routine spending and direct farm payments would continue, while new cohesion programmes, infrastructure projects and long-term research funding would freeze, with immediate and tangible consequences for millions of Europeans.
The tour also comes amid heightened tensions over defence spending. Several frugal states want to channel more EU money into joint defence procurement and military industrial capacity, a priority that has gained urgency following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and growing uncertainty about the transatlantic relationship under the current US administration.
Personal Diplomacy at Stake
Costa’s office has faced scrutiny after it emerged that his chief of staff established contact with Russian officials without broad prior consultation of member states, breaking years of diplomatic silence and triggering significant discontent among several EU governments. The tour is partly an effort to rebuild trust and demonstrate that the European Council presidency operates in full coordination with all 27 capitals.
The coming weeks will show whether Fico’s hard line can be softened or whether the first stop has already set the tone for what promises to be a protracted and bruising negotiation over the EU’s financial future.
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