Russia’s gasoline production has plummeted to roughly 70% of domestic consumption by late August after a sustained wave of Ukrainian drone attacks forced several major refineries to shut down operations, according to two industry sources familiar with the data.
The emergency shutdowns widened the gap between gasoline production and market demand to approximately 35,000 metric tons per day, leaving current output of around 80,000 tons per day far short of the estimated summer demand of 115,000 tons per day, the sources told Reuters.
Drone Strikes Cripple Key Refineries
Over the past week, Ukrainian drones struck and halted operations at several major refineries, including plants in Perm, Nizhny Novgorod, and Yaroslavl – all significant producers of motor gasoline. The attacks represent an escalation of Ukraine’s campaign to undermine Moscow’s war economy by targeting the energy infrastructure that funds the Russian military.
Average gasoline production across August stood at about 90,000 tons per day, equivalent to roughly 80% of estimated summer demand. But the late-August figure of 80,000 tons per day marks a sharp deterioration, returning production to the same level seen in early July at the peak of the first wave of a fuel crisis that had been building since May.
Rationing Returns Across Russia
After a brief respite at the end of July, when some local authorities began easing or lifting restrictions on fuel sales, shortages returned to Russian regions in August. Regional authorities have re-imposed limits on purchases per customer and introduced sales schedules based on vehicle registration plate numbers.
The impact of the shortages has been partially softened by drivers avoiding non-essential trips because of the risk of long queues at filling stations or running out of fuel. But the restrictions are a visible reminder of the domestic toll of the war, reaching ordinary Russians far from the front lines.
Russia Turns to Imports
The fuel deficit has forced Russia to increase imports of petroleum products from foreign sources. Seaborne supplies from Asian countries are expected to total about 270,000 tons in August, while gasoline imports from Belarus are seen reaching around 150,000 tons during the month, or roughly 5,000 tons per day, according to market participants.
In total, about 220,000 tons of imported gasoline had already arrived in Russia by late August, traders estimate, averaging around 7,000 tons per day. With gasoline exports banned until January 31 and imports supplementing domestic production, supplies to the domestic market could average about 97,000 tons per day – still only around 85% of demand.
“The outages are extraordinary,” said Gary Peach, an oil markets analyst at Energy Intelligence. Gasoline production has fallen 17% to 850,000 barrels a day, from 1.03 million a day a year ago – far short of what is needed for the domestic market.
Economic and Military Implications
About a third of Russia’s oil refining capacity is currently offline, according to Chris Weafer, CEO of Macro-Advisory Ltd. “It comes at a very critical time for the Russian economy, in that the agriculture season, particularly the harvest season, is now starting to ratchet up,” increasing demand, he said.
The Kremlin imposed a sweeping ban on gasoline exports in late July, originally set to last through August. The ban has been extended through January 31, 2027, in an effort to stabilize domestic supply. But analysts say the export volumes are far smaller than domestic consumption, meaning that redirecting them to the local market has had only a limited impact.
Ukraine’s strikes on Russian oil infrastructure are designed to limit Moscow’s fuel export revenues and disrupt supplies to its military. The damage from the attacks has accumulated over months, creating a crisis that goes beyond a single strike to threaten Russia’s entire domestic fuel supply chain.
Russia’s Energy Ministry did not respond to a request for comment on the production figures. The ministry has previously dismissed reports of fuel shortages as exaggerated, even as regional authorities imposed visible rationing measures across the country.
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