More than 113,000 Russians crossed into Georgia through the Upper Lars checkpoint in a single week, data from Russia’s Federal Customs Service showed, as growing fears of a new mobilization wave drive a mass exodus that echoes the panic of September 2022.
The figure, reported by Politico on August 28, represents a dramatic spike in border traffic that significantly exceeds levels from previous years. On August 20 alone, over 20,000 people passed through the checkpoint, which serves as one of the few land crossings between Russia and a country that allows visa-free entry. The surge has raised alarm in Moscow and across the region about the Kremlin’s plans for its struggling war effort.
The exodus comes amid mounting evidence that Russia is quietly preparing for a new mobilization. Ukraine’s Presidential Office has warned that Moscow plans to recruit 600,000 people over 2026 and 2027, with 300,000 to be called up this year and another 300,000 next year. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in early August that Ukrainian intelligence expected Russia to launch a “rapid mobilization” of several hundred thousand men by the end of the year.
Speaking to journalists this week, Zelenskyy added that Russia plans to mobilize approximately 300,000 people after the State Duma elections scheduled for September, but would avoid targeting major cities such as Moscow and St. Petersburg to minimize public backlash. The newly mobilized troops could be used to reinforce Russia’s offensive on the “fortress belt” cities in Donetsk Oblast or to open new fronts along Ukraine’s northern border.
The Kremlin has denied the mobilization plans repeatedly. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said this week that talk of a mobilization was “being planted by the Ukrainian authorities” to “ideologically destabilize the situation.” Russia’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Vasily Nebenzya, stated on August 20 that a new mobilization is “not planned and not expected.” Yet the border data tells a different story.
Recruitment Campaigns Falling Short
Alexey Tabalov, founder of the human rights organization School of the Conscript, which works to protect Russian conscripts and military personnel, told Politico that his organization has noted a recent rise in requests for legal assistance from men of military age, “primarily from those in the military reserve.” The increase in legal queries mirrors the surge at the border and suggests widespread anxiety among Russia’s reservist population.
Russia’s contract soldier recruitment has failed to keep pace with battlefield losses. The country has been unable to consistently recruit more than 30,000 contract soldiers per month this year, with figures dropping to 27,000 in certain months, according to data cited by United24 Media. The shortfall has pushed the Kremlin toward more aggressive tactics, including targeting university students for its newly created Unmanned Systems Forces.
In March 2026, Russian media reported that the defense ministry planned to recruit some 80,000 people, mostly students, into the drone troops. The initiative was accompanied by a mass propaganda campaign and pressure on universities. School administrations routinely ordered students to attend meetings with military recruiters, where they were pushed to sign contracts in exchange for cash payouts. By July, however, only 8,000 people had been recruited, roughly 10 percent of the target.
A calculation by Novaya Gazeta Europe in August found that nearly all of Russia’s top 50 universities had been pressuring their students to sign military contracts. The aggressive recruitment drive, which falls far short of its goals, has contributed to the climate of fear that is now sending thousands of Russians across the border each day.
Echoes of 2022
Georgia has seen this pattern before. In September 2022, when President Vladimir Putin launched a partial mobilization that called up approximately 300,000 men following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Georgia received more than 100,000 Russian nationals within a single week. The country’s relative ease of access and visa-free policy have made it a primary escape route for Russians seeking to avoid military service.
Armenia is also positioning itself as a potential safe haven. Alen Simonyan, Secretary of Armenia’s Security Council, told TV Rain that Yerevan would not hinder those seeking to avoid being sent to the Ukrainian front. “To a Russian person, I can say only one thing: Welcome to Armenia,” Simonyan said. “Here we love everyone, we respect everyone. And here they will find everything they were looking for when coming to Armenia.”
A state-run poll by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center in July 2026 revealed that 66 percent of Russian citizens believe a new mobilization will take place. The finding, from a polling agency typically aligned with the Kremlin’s messaging, underscores how deeply the fear has penetrated Russian society despite official denials. With recruitment targets unmet and battlefield losses mounting, the gap between Moscow’s public statements and its operational reality continues to widen.
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