Russia’s military leadership has been tasked with preparing several operational scenarios for an offensive in northern Ukraine, with Kyiv and Chernihiv identified as key target areas, a senior Ukrainian official has revealed. Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Pavlo Palisa disclosed the intelligence during a closed-door briefing with journalists on August 28, marking the first official Ukrainian acknowledgment of specific Russian planning for a renewed northern push.
“The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has developed possible response scenarios, including measures to defend, protect, and counter these actions,” Palisa said. The statement signals that Ukrainian military planners are actively preparing for the possibility that Moscow could open a new front in a region where its last major offensive ended in a humiliating retreat.
A Repeat of 2022, or Something New?
Russia’s last major operation in northern Ukraine came in February 2022, when columns of armored vehicles advanced toward Kyiv from Belarus in an attempt to quickly topple the Ukrainian government. The operation failed within weeks as Ukrainian forces, bolstered by Western-supplied weapons and fierce local resistance, forced Russian troops into a full withdrawal from the Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy oblasts by late March 2022. Thousands of Russian soldiers were killed in the failed campaign, and the retreat exposed deep weaknesses in Russian logistics, command, and intelligence.
The new planning suggests Moscow may be seeking to reestablish a presence in areas it abandoned nearly five years ago, though the military landscape has changed dramatically since 2022. Ukraine has since built extensive defensive fortifications across its northern border, and its armed forces are far better equipped and experienced than they were at the start of the full-scale invasion.
Intensifying Strikes Coincide With Planning
The disclosure comes amid a sustained Russian aerial campaign targeting Kyiv and surrounding regions. On August 28 and 29, Russian forces launched a prolonged combined drone and missile strike series lasting more than 28 hours, firing over 550 loitering munitions, strike drones, and decoy drones at targets across Ukraine. The attacks primarily targeted Kyiv City and Oblast in what analysts assessed as an effort to exhaust Ukrainian air defense forces and maximize civilian disruption.
Kyiv City Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko reported that Russian drones struck the capital for the third consecutive day, injuring at least five people and damaging residential and civilian infrastructure. The sustained aerial assault culminated in a devastating strike on an ammunition warehouse in the village of Myla, near Kyiv, which triggered secondary detonations and killed at least 37 people on August 29. Prime Minister Serhii Koretskyi called the incident “criminal negligence” and demanded accountability from officials responsible for the facility.
The ISW assessment noted that Russian forces “likely sought to exhaust Ukrainian forces defending Kyiv, particularly ahead of the August 28 to 29 strikes.” The pattern of sustained pressure on the capital has raised concerns among analysts that the aerial campaign could be preparatory to a ground operation.
Mobilization and Manpower Pressures
Russia’s ability to launch a major northern offensive would depend heavily on its capacity to generate sufficient manpower. Ukraine’s Presidential Office has warned that Moscow plans to mobilize 600,000 recruits over 2026 and 2027, with 300,000 called up this year and another 300,000 next year. The announcement has triggered a mass exodus, with more than 113,000 Russians crossing into Georgia in a single week as fears of a new mobilization wave grow.
The General Staff reported on August 29 that Russia has lost a total of 1,485,200 troops in Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, with 1,420 casualties in the previous 24 hours alone. These staggering losses have placed enormous strain on Russia’s conventional military capacity, raising questions about whether Moscow can sustain a new major offensive while continuing operations in eastern Ukraine.
Stalled Front Lines and Diplomatic Activity
The revelation of northern planning comes as ground operations in eastern Ukraine remain largely stalemated. ISW data shows Russian forces advanced only 38 square kilometers in July 2026, a fraction of the 456 square kilometers captured in July 2025. The Spring-Summer 2026 offensive has made no operationally significant gains in two and a half months, with July recording the highest Russian casualty rate of the year.
Meanwhile, diplomatic activity has continued in the background. CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Moscow for meetings with Russian officials, after which President Zelensky said Ukraine received a briefing on the discussions. “We value the coordination of steps and the fact that America is advancing a quite realistic vision of what needs to be done,” Zelensky said. Separately, Zelensky reportedly presented a joint Ukraine-US-Europe peace proposal offering significant Ukrainian concessions, though Russia has not publicly responded.
The combination of Russian offensive planning in the north, intensifying aerial campaigns against Kyiv, and large-scale mobilization efforts points to a potentially dangerous escalation in the months ahead, even as both sides maintain that a negotiated settlement remains theoretically possible.
discussion